Q3 2026 earnings season: implied vs actual moves
A running scoreboard of the Q3 2026 reporting season: for each notable report, the move the options market priced in beforehand versus the move that actually happened. 4 of 5 confirmed reports have beaten their implied move so far.
Updated September 14, 2026 · updated through the season as reports land · methodology · predecessor: Q2 2026 beat report
Confirmed reports
"Actual" is the peak intraday earnings move; "implied" is the last pre-print options-implied move recorded on our pages.
| Stock | Reported | Implied | Actual (peak) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | Jul 14 | ±4.6% | ±9.4% | Beat implied |
| ASML | Jul 15 | — | ±3.1% | |
| NFLX | Jul 16 | ±11.0% | ±12.2% | Beat implied |
| TSLA | Jul 22 | ±6.3% | ±15.6% | Beat implied |
| GOOGL | Jul 22 | ±6.5% | ±7.9% | Beat implied |
| TXN | Jul 22 | ±9.9% | ±6.8% | Stayed inside |
| INTC | Jul 23 | — | ±8.6% |
Just reported — initial reactions (provisional)
These names reported in the last few days. "Reaction so far" is the cumulative move from the pre-earnings reference price through the latest DriftLab checkpoint (close-based); implied is the last value recorded on our pages before the print. Rows are finalized to peak-based stats once canonical data lands.
| Stock | Reported | Pre-print implied | Reaction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | Jul 28 | — | +0.6% so far | provisional |
| MSFT | Jul 29 | ±8.6% | +15.5% so far | provisional |
| META | Jul 29 | ±8.2% | -8.0% so far | provisional |
| QCOM | Jul 29 | ±9.3% | -2.6% so far | provisional |
| AAPL | Jul 30 | ±3.9% | -7.4% so far | provisional |
| AMZN | Jul 30 | ±6.9% | +15.3% so far | provisional |
| COIN | Jul 30 | ±9.9% | -10.6% so far | provisional |
| PLTR | Aug 3 | ±12.2% | +29.5% so far | provisional |
| AMD | Aug 4 | ±8.2% | -7.0% so far | provisional |
| UBER | Aug 5 | ±6.7% | -5.3% so far | provisional |
| DIS | Aug 5 | ±5.6% | +3.6% so far | provisional |
| SHOP | Aug 5 | ±12.1% | +17.0% so far | provisional |
| SNDK | Aug 5 | ±16.2% | -6.8% so far | provisional |
| WDC | Aug 5 | ±19.0% | -13.0% so far | provisional |
| APP | Aug 5 | ±23.4% | -19.7% so far | provisional |
| AXON | Aug 5 | ±13.7% | -14.3% so far | provisional |
| DDOG | Aug 6 | ±21.4% | -19.0% so far | provisional |
| RKLB | Aug 10 | ±14.1% | -4.8% so far | provisional |
| FERG | Aug 10 | ±8.2% | +2.8% so far | provisional |
| HIMS | Aug 10 | ±14.2% | -3.5% so far | provisional |
| SE | Aug 11 | ±11.8% | +14.6% so far | provisional |
| ESLT | Aug 11 | ±8.3% | -8.3% so far | provisional |
| CRWV | Aug 11 | ±13.1% | +19.3% so far | provisional |
| LITE | Aug 11 | ±11.6% | +13.6% so far | provisional |
| SMCI | Aug 11 | ±13.9% | +19.0% so far | provisional |
| NBIS | Aug 12 | ±13.1% | +34.1% so far | provisional |
| COHR | Aug 12 | ±12.8% | -8.0% so far | provisional |
| CSCO | Aug 12 | ±8.3% | -8.4% so far | provisional |
| TPR | Aug 13 | ±8.9% | -16.5% so far | provisional |
| AMAT | Aug 13 | ±7.4% | -5.1% so far | provisional |
| HD | Aug 18 | ±4.6% | -0.1% so far | provisional |
| BIDU | Aug 18 | ±10.4% | -12.7% so far | provisional |
| KEYS | Aug 18 | ±9.3% | -6.3% so far | provisional |
| LOW | Aug 19 | ±4.9% | +2.0% so far | provisional |
| TGT | Aug 19 | ±7.0% | +4.3% so far | provisional |
| TJX | Aug 19 | ±4.5% | -4.2% so far | provisional |
| ADI | Aug 19 | ±6.5% | -0.9% so far | provisional |
| EL | Aug 19 | ±8.8% | +16.3% so far | provisional |
| VIK | Aug 19 | ±7.6% | -7.7% so far | provisional |
| DE | Aug 20 | ±5.2% | +6.9% so far | provisional |
| WMT | Aug 20 | ±5.2% | -9.2% so far | provisional |
| NTES | Aug 20 | ±5.7% | -5.8% so far | provisional |
| BABA | Aug 20 | ±6.6% | +1.3% so far | provisional |
| ROST | Aug 20 | ±6.6% | +4.4% so far | provisional |
| PDD | Aug 24 | ±7.6% | -1.5% so far | provisional |
| BMO | Aug 25 | ±5.0% | +0.6% so far | provisional |
| BNS | Aug 25 | ±4.7% | +7.2% so far | provisional |
| INTU | Aug 25 | ±8.4% | -3.2% so far | provisional |
| HEI | Aug 25 | ±8.5% | -1.4% so far | provisional |
| NVDA | Aug 26 | ±5.9% | +8.7% so far | provisional |
| CRWD | Aug 26 | ±8.2% | +20.5% so far | provisional |
| CRM | Aug 26 | ±8.1% | +22.6% so far | provisional |
| SNPS | Aug 26 | ±8.8% | +13.4% so far | provisional |
| A | Aug 26 | ±8.8% | +1.7% so far | provisional |
| VEEV | Aug 26 | ±12.0% | +15.2% so far | provisional |
| CM | Aug 27 | ±6.0% | -2.8% so far | provisional |
| RY | Aug 27 | ±4.9% | -1.3% so far | provisional |
| TD | Aug 27 | ±4.1% | +1.4% so far | provisional |
| MRVL | Aug 27 | ±10.5% | -10.3% so far | provisional |
| ADSK | Aug 27 | ±8.3% | -3.7% so far | provisional |
| WDAY | Aug 27 | ±7.4% | +5.8% so far | provisional |
| MDT | Sep 1 | ±5.0% | +1.5% so far | provisional |
| PANW | Sep 1 | ±9.4% | -9.3% so far | provisional |
| DELL | Sep 1 | ±10.4% | +15.8% so far | provisional |
| CRDO | Sep 1 | ±11.8% | -20.0% so far | provisional |
| MDB | Sep 1 | ±16.1% | -13.5% so far | provisional |
| AVGO | Sep 2 | ±8.1% | -2.7% so far | provisional |
| SNOW | Sep 2 | ±12.8% | +16.6% so far | provisional |
| HPE | Sep 2 | ±11.0% | +5.0% so far | provisional |
| NTAP | Sep 2 | ±12.4% | +2.6% so far | provisional |
| CIEN | Sep 3 | ±11.3% | -10.4% so far | provisional |
| CASY | Sep 8 | ±8.8% | -14.2% so far | provisional |
| GME | Sep 8 | ±4.8% | +5.3% so far | provisional |
| ASO | Sep 9 | ±8.2% | +14.4% so far | provisional |
| CHWY | Sep 9 | ±10.0% | -10.8% so far | provisional |
| SIG | Sep 9 | ±9.8% | +24.0% so far | provisional |
| AEO | Sep 9 | ±13.7% | -14.0% so far | provisional |
| AVAV | Sep 9 | ±12.0% | +4.4% so far | provisional |
| COO | Sep 9 | ±7.9% | -14.7% so far | provisional |
| M | Sep 10 | ±7.7% | -4.7% so far | provisional |
| ADBE | Sep 10 | ±8.3% | +1.4% so far | provisional |
| ORCL | Sep 10 | ±11.9% | -1.7% so far | provisional |
| CPRT | Sep 10 | ±7.0% | -2.6% so far | provisional |
| RH | Sep 10 | ±12.6% | +0.0% so far | provisional |
| DSGX | Sep 10 | ±8.0% | +6.6% so far | provisional |
| KR | Sep 11 | ±6.5% | +2.7% so far | provisional |
Reporting next — what options are pricing in
Live implied moves for upcoming reports on the tracker's watchlist. These rows flip to actual results after each print.
| Stock | Reports | Implied move (live) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLAY | Sep 14 after close | ±17.0% | reports soon |
| TCOM | Sep 15 after close | ±6.5% | reports soon |
| LEN | Sep 16 after close | ±6.5% | reports soon |
How to read this
The implied move is the magnitude options price in before a report — not a forecast, and not a direction. When the actual move exceeds it, long-volatility structures held through the print were favored by the move itself; when the move stays inside, short-volatility structures were. Neither outcome is predictable in advance, and this page describes what happened — it is not a recommendation. For any single name's full history, open its playbook or live data page.
Frequently asked questions
What does this tracker show?
For each notable Q3 2026 earnings report: the implied move (what options priced in before the report) versus the actual move, updated through the season as companies report.
What does 'beat implied' mean?
The stock's actual earnings move was larger than the move options had priced in beforehand. 'Stayed inside' means the actual move was smaller than implied.
Why are some rows provisional?
Names that reported in the last few days show an initial cumulative reaction while the final peak-based statistics are still settling; rows are finalized once canonical data lands.
Does beating the implied move mean a trade was profitable?
Not by itself. It describes how the realized move compared with option pricing — outcomes for any specific position depend on structure, strikes, timing and IV changes. This page is educational, not advice.
This scoreboard is free. Trading the next print is where membership starts.
Live implied moves on every name still to report, beat probability against what options price in, IV-crush forecasts and a straddle simulator — the pipeline behind this tracker, pointed at the season's remaining reports.