Tesla (TSLA) is one of the most volatile large-cap earnings events you can trade — big moves, a fat tail, and a recent twist worth knowing. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of June 2026. The numbers describe history, so they’re useful whether you’re reading this months before a report or the week of one.
TSLA earnings at a glance
TSLA’s typical earnings move is large — about ±9.3% over a decade, with half of reports landing inside ±8.9%. The tail is genuinely fat: the 95th-percentile move is about ±16.3%, so double-digit reactions are a regular feature, not a freak event. This is a high-dispersion name, and option premiums reflect it.
Does TSLA beat its implied move?
This is the question that decides whether buying or selling premium has an edge. The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. Over its last 16 reports, TSLA’s actual move has topped the implied move about 56% of the time (9 of 16) — but there’s an important caveat.
How TSLA’s moves are distributed
The distribution is wide: even the 20th percentile is ±5.3%, the median is ±8.9%, and the 95th-percentile outlier reaches ±16.3%, with a standard deviation around ±4.4%. There’s little “small reaction” base case here — TSLA tends to move on earnings.
Recent TSLA earnings
To make it concrete: Tesla’s three most recent reports each landed inside the implied move — roughly 4–5% actual against 6–7% implied — a clear shift from its historically wild reactions. Over the longer record the moves skew much larger, so a single recent quarter is the nuance, not the whole story.
IV rush and IV crush on TSLA
Implied volatility ramps hard into the report (the IV rush) and collapses immediately after (the IV crush). Tesla carries some of the richest earnings premium around, so the crush is pronounced; with recent moves landing under the implied, long premium held through the print has historically lost value even when the direction was right — the trade-off explored in holding options through earnings.
What TSLA’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. Tesla has cleared its implied move about 56% of the time over the long run, though recently less so, and the ±16.3% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. The practical use is to compare a given quarter’s live implied move against this history — and to understand how each structure behaves around that move: a straddle or strangle needs the actual move to exceed the implied to pay, while an iron condor or butterfly needs it to stay smaller. You can test any of them against Tesla’s full history in the EarningsWatcher app rather than relying on a rule of thumb.
Frequently asked questions
How much does TSLA move on earnings?
Over its last 16 earnings reports (roughly the past 10 years, as of June 2026), TSLA's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 9.3%, with a median near plus or minus 8.9%. Tail risk is high: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 16.3%, so double-digit reactions are common.
Does TSLA usually beat its implied move?
Over the long run, slightly more often than not — Tesla's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 56% of recent reports (roughly 9 of 16). However, the three most recent reports all came in under the implied move, a meaningful cooling from Tesla's wilder years.
What is TSLA's implied move for earnings?
The implied move only firms up as an earnings date approaches, so there is no meaningful implied move far in advance. As a reference, TSLA's recent reports have priced implied moves of roughly 6% to 7%. Check the live implied move in the EarningsWatcher app as the next report nears, and compare it to the plus or minus 9.3% historical average.
When does Tesla (TSLA) report earnings?
Tesla reports quarterly, after the market close (AMC), typically in late January, late April, late July and late October. Confirm the exact upcoming date on a live earnings calendar before trading.