NVIDIA (NVDA) is one of the most-traded earnings events on the market. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of June 2026. The numbers describe history — they’re useful whether you’re reading this months before a report or the week of one.
NVDA earnings at a glance
Two things jump out: NVDA’s typical earnings move is large (≈±8.3% over a decade), but the last two years have been cooling (≈±5.4%). At the same time, tail risk is extreme — the 95th-percentile move is about ±20.1%, so big surprises remain very possible.
Does NVDA beat its implied move?
This is the question that decides whether buying or selling premium has an edge. The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. For NVDA, the actual move has topped the implied move only about a quarter of the time across its recent history.
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Implied vs actual move, report by report
Two patterns stand out. First, the implied move has been trending down as NVDA’s post-earnings reactions cool off. Second, the actual move has more often than not landed inside the implied move — with rare, outsized exceptions. That combination is exactly what makes the “is it cheap or rich?” question worth checking every quarter rather than assuming.
How NVDA’s moves are distributed
The spread of NVDA’s earnings moves is wide with a fat right tail: a typical reaction is mid-single digits, but the worst-case tail stretches toward ~20%. Direction has skewed slightly bullish historically — NVDA has finished up after earnings a bit more often than down, and its up moves have tended to be larger than its down moves. So a “small reaction” is the base case, while the occasional double-digit gap is what you’re really hedging against.
IV rush and IV crush on NVDA
Implied volatility ramps hard into NVDA earnings (the IV rush) and collapses immediately after (the IV crush). Combined with a sub-25% beat rate, that’s why holding long options through NVDA earnings has been hard: you pay peak IV, and the move usually doesn’t clear it.
Which strategies fit NVDA earnings?
- Defined-risk short vol — given the >75% “doesn’t beat implied” rate, condors/butterflies can fit, but strikes must sit beyond the ~20% tail.
- Long volatility — reserve for when the implied move looks cheap versus the ±8.3% history; structures like straddles/strangles or a defined-risk inverse butterfly (see the NVDA case study).
- IV Rush — capture the pre-report volatility build-up and exit before the announcement to skip the crush.
- Runners — trade the post-earnings drift after the gap instead of holding through.
Frequently asked questions
How much does NVDA move on earnings?
Over its last 16 earnings reports (roughly the past 10 years, as of June 2026), NVDA’s average earnings-day peak move was about ±8.3%, with a median near ±6.5%. The most recent two years have been calmer at about ±5.4%, but tail risk is high: the 95th-percentile move is about ±20.1%.
Does NVDA usually beat its implied move?
Not usually. NVDA’s actual move has come in below its options-implied move in the clear majority of recent reports, topping the implied move only about a quarter of the time. The misses are typically modest while the rare beats are large, which is why its earnings options are generally rated “fairly priced” rather than cheap.
What is NVDA’s implied move for earnings?
The implied move only firms up as an earnings date approaches, so there’s no meaningful implied move far in advance. Historically NVDA’s implied move has ranged from roughly 6% to 11.6% per report. Check the live implied move in the EarningsWatcher app as the next report nears.
When does NVDA report earnings?
NVIDIA reports quarterly, after the market close (AMC), typically in late February, late May, late August and late November. Confirm the exact upcoming date on a live earnings calendar before trading.