Netflix (NFLX) is one of the higher-dispersion mega-cap earnings events — big enough moves to matter for options, with a fat tail and recent averages near the decade mark worth weighing carefully. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 10 years of peak earnings-day moves (n=40), as of July 2026.
NFLX earnings at a glance
NFLX’s decade-long average earnings move is about ±10.5%, and the last two years average about ±9.7% — close to the decade mark, with a fat tail that still matters: the 95th-percentile move is about ±20%. Double-digit reactions remain part of the story even in a quieter recent stretch.
Does NFLX beat its implied move?
The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. NFLX’s actual peak move has topped the implied move in about 56% of recent reports with tracked implieds (9 of 16) — slightly more often than not.
overshoot
How NFLX’s moves are distributed
The distribution is wide with a fat right tail: half of NFLX’s earnings moves land within roughly ±9.5%, four in five stay under ±14.4%, and the 95th-percentile outlier reaches about ±20%. The two-year average (±9.7%) sits near the decade mark (±10.5%); the tail risk in the full record is unchanged.
Recent NFLX earnings
July 2026’s peak move was about −12.5% against an implied near ±11.6% — a slight beat. April 2026 peaked near −11.8% vs ~±10.3% implied. The decade tail near ±20% is what sizing should respect either way.
IV rush and IV crush on NFLX
Implied volatility ramps into the report (the IV rush) and collapses after (the IV crush). NFLX carries rich earnings premium and a fat tail — the trade-off in holding options through earnings.
What NFLX’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. NFLX has cleared its implied move slightly more often than not (~56%), recent averages sit near ±9.7% (2yr) / ±10.5% (10yr), and the ~±20% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case. Test structures against the full history in the EarningsWatcher app.
Frequently asked questions
When was the Netflix (NFLX) earnings date in July 2026?
Netflix (NFLX) reported Q2 2026 results on Thursday, July 16, 2026, after the market close (AMC).
What was NFLX's implied move for earnings July 16, 2026?
Into the July 16, 2026 print the implied was about plus or minus 11.6%. The actual peak move was about plus or minus 12.5% — a slight overshoot versus the plus or minus 9.7% two-year average and the plus or minus 10.5% decade average.
How much does Netflix (NFLX) move on earnings?
Over the last 10 years (peak earnings-day moves, n=40, as of July 2026), NFLX's average move was about plus or minus 10.5%, with a median near plus or minus 9.5%. The last two years average about plus or minus 9.7%. The 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 20%.
Does NFLX usually beat its implied move?
Slightly more often than not. NFLX's actual peak move has topped its options-implied move in about 56% of recent reports with tracked implieds (roughly 9 of 16). July 2026 peaked near minus 12.5% versus about plus or minus 11.6% implied.
What was the NFLX / Netflix earnings date in July 2026?
July 16, 2026 after the close — peak move about ±12.5% vs ~±11.6% implied. See the weekly earnings calendar for this week’s mega-cap prints.