Netflix (NFLX) is one of the higher-dispersion mega-cap earnings events — big enough moves to matter for options, with a recent cooling regime worth weighing against its fat tail. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 2026.
NFLX earnings at a glance
NFLX’s decade-long average earnings move is about ±10.5%, but the last two years have run cooler at ±8.8% — a cooling regime that still leaves a genuinely fat tail: the 95th-percentile move is about ±22%. Double-digit reactions remain part of the story even in a quieter recent stretch.
Does NFLX beat its implied move?
The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. NFLX’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 56% of recent reports (9 of 16) — slightly more often than not, with some dramatic overshoots in the record.
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How NFLX’s moves are distributed
The distribution is wide with a fat right tail: half of NFLX’s earnings moves land within roughly ±10.5%, four in five stay under ±16.4%, and the 95th-percentile outlier reaches ±22%. The cooling two-year average (±8.8%) sits below the decade mark (±10.5%) but the tail risk in the full record is unchanged.
Recent NFLX earnings
The cooling regime shows up in recent prints: April 2026’s peak move was only about ±1.3% against an implied move near ±10.2%; January 2026 landed near ±3.9% against ~±7.3% implied. The decade tail still reaches ±22% — that’s what sizing should respect even when the last few quarters undershoot.
IV rush and IV crush on NFLX
Implied volatility ramps into the report (the IV rush) and collapses after (the IV crush). NFLX carries rich earnings premium and a fat tail; when the actual move undershoots in a cooling quarter, the crush has historically hurt long premium held through the print — the trade-off in holding options through earnings.
What NFLX’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. NFLX has cleared its implied move slightly more often than not (~56%), the regime has been cooling (±8.8% over two years vs ±10.5% over ten), and the ±22% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. Test structures against the full history in the EarningsWatcher app.
Frequently asked questions
How much does NFLX move on earnings?
Over its last 16 earnings reports (as of July 2026), NFLX's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 10.5%, with a median near plus or minus 10.5%. The last two years have cooled to about plus or minus 8.8%. Tail risk is high: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 22%.
Does NFLX usually beat its implied move?
Slightly more often than not. NFLX's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 56% of recent reports (roughly 9 of 16). Overshoot quarters can be large; undershoots in the cooling recent regime pull the average back toward the implied.
What is NFLX's implied move for earnings?
The implied move firms up as the report approaches. NFLX reports July 16, 2026 (after the close); as of early July 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near plus or minus 8.8% (in line with the two-year average, below the plus or minus 10.5% decade average). Check the live figure in the EarningsWatcher app.
When does Netflix (NFLX) report earnings in July 2026?
Netflix is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on July 16, 2026, after the market close (AMC). Confirm the exact time on a live earnings calendar before trading.