Netflix (NFLX) is one of the higher-dispersion mega-cap earnings events — big enough moves to matter for options, with a recent still elevated regime worth weighing against its fat tail. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 10 years of peak earnings-day moves (n=40), as of July 16, 2026.
NFLX earnings at a glance
NFLX’s decade-long average earnings move is about ±10.5%, but the last two years average about ±9.7% — still elevated versus many mega-caps that still leaves a fat tail: the 95th-percentile move is about ±20%. Double-digit reactions remain part of the story even in a quieter recent stretch.
Does NFLX beat its implied move?
The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. NFLX’s actual peak move has topped the implied move in about 56% of recent reports with tracked implieds (9 of 16) — slightly more often than not.
How NFLX’s moves are distributed
The distribution is wide with a fat right tail: half of NFLX’s earnings moves land within roughly ±9.5%, four in five stay under ±14.4%, and the 95th-percentile outlier reaches about ±20%. The still elevated two-year average (±9.7%) sits below the decade mark (±10.5%) but the tail risk in the full record is unchanged.
Recent NFLX earnings
April 2026’s peak move was about −11.8% against an implied move near ±10.3% — a clear beat. Earlier still elevated prints still show how often NFLX can undershoot; the decade tail near ±20% is what sizing should respect either way.
IV rush and IV crush on NFLX
Implied volatility ramps into the report (the IV rush) and collapses after (the IV crush). NFLX carries rich earnings premium and a fat tail — the trade-off in holding options through earnings.
What NFLX’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. NFLX has cleared its implied move slightly more often than not (~56%), the regime has been still elevated (±9.7% over two years vs ±10.5% over ten), and the ~±20% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case. Test structures against the full history in the EarningsWatcher app.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Netflix (NFLX) earnings date in July 2026?
Netflix (NFLX) reported Q2 2026 results on Thursday, July 16, 2026, after the market close (AMC).
How much did NFLX move on July 16, 2026 earnings?
On the July 16, 2026 report (AMC), NFLX's earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 12.2% versus an options-implied move near plus or minus 11% — a beat of the implied move.
How much does Netflix (NFLX) move on earnings?
Over the last 10 years (peak earnings-day moves, n=40, as of July 2026), NFLX's average move was about plus or minus 10.5%, with a median near plus or minus 9.5%. The last two years average about plus or minus 9.7%. The 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 20%.
Does NFLX usually beat its implied move?
Slightly more often than not among recent reports with tracked implieds (about 56–60%). July 16, 2026 peaked near plus or minus 12.2% versus about plus or minus 11% implied.