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JPM Earnings Date & Expected Move

How much does JPMorgan move on earnings, how often does it actually beat its implied move, and what does that mean for options? Here’s the data — and how to read it ahead of the July 14, 2026 report.

EarningsWatcher Research 7 min read Data as of June 2026 · Education, not advice

JPMorgan (JPM) opens bank earnings season for many traders — a steady, low-dispersion name with a twist in its beat-rate history. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 2026. The numbers describe history; they’re useful whether you’re reading this weeks before the report or the morning of it.

JPM earnings at a glance

±3.4%
Avg move (10yr)
peak, day of release
±3.4%
Avg move (2yr)
regime: stable
±6.1%
95th-pct tail
outliers still possible

JPM’s typical earnings move is modest (≈±3.4% over a decade) and the last two years match that almost exactly — a stable volatility regime for a mega-cap bank. The tail is still real: the 95th-percentile move is about ±6.1%, so treating JPM like it can never gap is how traders get surprised on the handful of outlier quarters.

Does JPM beat its implied move?

This is the question that decides whether buying or selling premium has an edge. The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. JPM’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 63% of recent reports (10 of 16) — more often than not, despite the stock’s reputation for small reactions.

~63%
Beat rate
actual > implied (10 of 16)
Slightly
rich
Near-term pricing
live implied > 10yr avg
What this implies A ~63% beat rate is unusually high for such a low-dispersion name — JPM has cleared its implied move more often than not even though the average reaction is only about ±3.4%. Heading into the July 14, 2026 report, the live implied move has been pricing near ±4.4% (above the ±3.4% decade average) — a snapshot to compare against this history, not a verdict on whether options are cheap or rich.

How JPM’s moves are distributed

0% 5% 10% 10-yr avg ±3.4% ±0.7% 5th ±2.0% 20th ±3.4% median ±4.8% 80th ±6.1% 95th
The spread of JPM’s earnings-day moves by percentile. Half of reports land within roughly ±3.4%; the 95th-percentile worst case is about ±6.1%.

The distribution is tight: four in five JPM earnings moves stay under ±4.8%, and even the 95th-percentile outlier is only about ±6.1%. That’s why the headline average is so low — but the ~63% beat rate shows the implied move has still been a conservative estimate more often than not.

Recent JPM earnings

To make it concrete: October 2024’s peak move reached about ±7.2% against an implied move near ±4.1%; April 2024 peaked near ±8.8% against ~±6.7% implied. April 2026 was quieter (~±4.0% peak vs a higher pre-report implied). The pattern is small typical moves with occasional outliers that clear what options priced in.

See the full history The complete report-by-report record — every past implied vs actual move, open/peak/close behaviour and post-earnings drift, plus the live implied move as the next date approaches — lives in the EarningsWatcher app.

IV rush and IV crush on JPM

Like every earnings event, implied volatility builds into the report (the IV rush) and collapses afterward (the IV crush). With JPM beating its implied move about 63% of the time, the crush has historically been a more two-sided affair than on names that rarely move enough to overcome it — the tension at the heart of holding options through earnings.

What JPM’s earnings data means for options

These figures are a reference point, not a signal. JPM has cleared its implied move in roughly three of every five reports (~63%), the regime has been stable (±3.4% over both two and ten years), and the ±6.1% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. The practical use is to compare the live implied move against this history before forming a view — and to understand how each structure behaves around that move: a straddle or strangle needs the actual move to exceed the implied to pay, while an iron condor or butterfly needs it to stay smaller. You can test any of them against JPM’s full history in the EarningsWatcher app.

On the “next” implied move JPM’s next report is scheduled for July 14, 2026 (before market open) — the traditional kickoff of bank earnings season. As of early July 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near ±4.4% (modestly above the ±3.4% decade average). Check the live implied move in the app and compare it to this history.

Frequently asked questions

How much does JPM move on earnings?

Over its last 16 earnings reports (roughly the past 10 years, as of July 2026), JPM's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 3.4%, with a median near plus or minus 3.4%. The last two years have matched the decade average at about plus or minus 3.4%, so JPM's earnings volatility has been stable. Tail risk is moderate: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 6.1%.

Does JPM usually beat its implied move?

More often than not. JPM's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 63% of recent reports (roughly 10 of 16) — high for such a low-dispersion bank. You still pay elevated implied volatility going in and face the IV crush afterward.

What is JPM's implied move for earnings?

The implied move only firms up as an earnings date approaches. JPM reports July 14, 2026 (before the open); as of early July 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near plus or minus 4.4% (above the plus or minus 3.4% historical average). Check the live figure in the EarningsWatcher app as the report nears.

When does JPMorgan (JPM) report earnings in July 2026?

JPMorgan is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on July 14, 2026, before the market open (BMO) — typically the first major bank to report each quarter. Confirm the exact time on a live earnings calendar before trading.

See JPM’s live earnings data

Get JPMorgan’s July 14 report date, the live implied move, and the full history of past moves.

Open JPM in the app →