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MS Earnings Date & Expected Move

How much does Morgan Stanley move on earnings, how often does it actually beat its implied move, and what does that mean for options? Here’s the data — ahead of the July 15, 2026 report.

EarningsWatcher Research 7 min read Data as of June 2026 · Education, not advice

Morgan Stanley (MS) reports the day after the mega-cap bank cluster — a modest average mover on paper with a surprisingly high beat-rate history versus its implied moves. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last ~40 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 2026.

MS earnings at a glance

±4.6%
Avg move (10yr)
peak, day of release
±5.5%
Avg move (2yr)
regime: slightly hotter
±8.2%
95th-pct tail
outliers still possible

Morgan Stanley’s decade average earnings move is about ±4.6%, with the last two years running slightly hotter at ±5.5%. The 95th-percentile tail is about ±8.2% — still a bank profile, but not immune to outsized gaps (October 2023 peaked near ±8.6% against ~±3.8% implied).

Does MS beat its implied move?

The implied move is what options price in before the report. Among recent reports with tracked implied moves, MS’s actual peak move has topped the implied in about 81% of cases (13 of 16) — unusually high for a name whose average reaction sits in the mid-single digits.

~81%
Beat rate
actual > implied (13 of 16)
Slightly
rich
Near-term pricing
live ~5.4% vs ~4.6% avg
What this implies An ~81% beat rate means Morgan Stanley has historically cleared what options priced in far more often than not — even though typical moves stay near ±4–5%. Heading into July 15, 2026, the live implied move has been near ±5.4% (modestly above the ±4.6% decade average). That is a snapshot to weigh against this record, not a trading signal.

How MS’s moves are distributed

0% 5% 10% 10-yr avg ±4.6% ±1.7% 5th ±3.3% 20th ±4.2% median ±6.3% 80th ±8.2% 95th
The spread of Morgan Stanley’s earnings-day moves by percentile. The median is about ±4.2%; the 95th-percentile worst case is about ±8.2%.

The distribution is tight with occasional spikes: four in five MS earnings moves stay under ±6.3%, and even the 95th-percentile outlier is about ±8.2%. The high beat rate shows the implied move has often been a conservative estimate relative to peak intraday moves.

Recent MS earnings

To make it concrete: April 2026’s peak move reached about ±6.1% against an implied move near ±3.4% — a clear beat and typical of MS’s recent pattern. January 2023 peaked near ±8.1% against ~±3.6% implied. The average stays modest; the implied-vs-actual history is the nuance.

See the full history The complete report-by-report record — every past implied vs actual move, open/peak/close behaviour and post-earnings drift, plus the live implied move as the next date approaches — lives in the EarningsWatcher app.

IV rush and IV crush on MS

Implied volatility builds into the report (the IV rush) and collapses afterward (the IV crush). With a high historical beat rate, MS’s crush has historically been more two-sided than on names that reliably undershoot their implied move.

What MS’s earnings data means for options

These figures are a reference point, not a signal. Morgan Stanley has cleared its implied move in roughly four of every five tracked reports (~81%), recent moves have run slightly hotter than the decade average, and the ±8.2% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. Compare the live implied move in the EarningsWatcher app.

On the “next” implied move Morgan Stanley’s next report is scheduled for July 15, 2026 (before market open). As of early July 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near ±5.4%. Check the live implied move in the app as the date nears.

Frequently asked questions

How much does MS (Morgan Stanley) move on earnings?

Over its last ~40 earnings reports (as of July 2026), Morgan Stanley's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 4.6%, with a median near plus or minus 4.2%. The last two years have averaged about plus or minus 5.5%. The 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 8.2%.

Does Morgan Stanley usually beat its implied move?

Among recent reports with tracked implied moves, yes — often. MS's actual peak move has topped its options-implied move in about 81% of those reports (roughly 13 of 16), high for such a low-dispersion bank broker.

What is MS's implied move for earnings?

Morgan Stanley reports July 15, 2026 (before the open); as of early July 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near plus or minus 5.4% (above the plus or minus 4.6% decade average). Check the live figure in the EarningsWatcher app.

When does Morgan Stanley (MS) report earnings in July 2026?

Morgan Stanley is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on July 15, 2026, before the market open (BMO) — the day after the mega-cap bank cluster. Confirm the exact time on a live calendar.

See MS’s live earnings data

Get Morgan Stanley’s July 15 date, live implied move, and full move history.

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