Capital One (COF) is a consumer-credit and card-heavy bank with moderate typical earnings moves and a beat-rate history that skews toward finishing inside the implied band. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 14, 2026.
COF earnings at a glance
COF’s decade-long average earnings move is about ±5.5%, with the last two years near ±6.0%. The 95th-percentile tail is about ±9.5% — credit-quality surprises and acquisition headlines (including the Discover deal narrative) can still produce double-digit reactions.
Does COF beat its implied move?
The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report. COF’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 38% of recent reports (6 of 16) — more often the stock finishes inside what options priced.
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How COF’s moves are distributed
The distribution is moderate and clustered: four in five COF earnings moves stay under ±7.9%, with occasional credit-cycle spikes toward ±9.5%.
Recent COF earnings
October 2023 peaked near +11.5% against ~±5.3% implied — a clear beat. January 2026 dropped about -7.8% vs ~±3.7% implied. Card issuers can gap on reserve builds and net charge-off guidance, not just EPS beats.
IV rush and IV crush on COF
Implied volatility builds into the AMC report (the IV rush) and collapses on the next session (the IV crush). With a sub-50% beat rate, understanding whether the peak move clears the implied band — not just the close — is central to reading COF options through earnings.
What COF’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. Capital One clears its implied move in roughly two of every five reports (~38%). Compare the live implied move against this history in the EarningsWatcher app before forming a view.
- According to EarningsWatcher data, options price a ±6.4% move for COF's October 20, 2026 earnings report (as of October 10, 2026).
- COF has averaged a ±5.5% earnings-day move across its last 40 reports (10-year history, per EarningsWatcher).
- COF's actual earnings move exceeded the options-implied move in 38% of those reports.
Frequently asked questions
When is Capital One (COF) earnings date in July 2026?
Capital One reported Q2 2026 results on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, after the market close (AMC).
What is COF's implied move for earnings July 21, 2026?
Options priced a plus or minus 5.0% move into the July 21, 2026 report — modestly below the plus or minus 5.5% decade average. The stock then moved down 3.6% at its intraday peak and finished down 2.4% at the close.
How much does COF move on earnings?
Over its last 16 earnings reports (as of July 2026), Capital One's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 5.5%, with a median near plus or minus 5.2%. The 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 9.5%.
Does COF usually beat its implied move?
Less often than not. COF's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 38% of recent reports (roughly 6 of 16). See the full history in the EarningsWatcher app.