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Capital One (COF) Earnings Date & Expected Move (July 21, 2026)

Capital One (COF) reports Q2 2026 earnings on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, after the market close. The options market is pricing a move of about ±6.6% — here’s the move history and what it means for options.

EarningsWatcher Research 7 min read Data as of July 2026 · Education, not advice
Earnings date Capital One’s earnings date is July 21, 2026 (after market close). Live implied move: ±6.6%. See the weekly earnings calendar for every name reporting this week.

Capital One (COF) is a consumer-credit and card-heavy bank with moderate typical earnings moves and a beat-rate history that skews toward finishing inside the implied band. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 14, 2026.

COF earnings at a glance

±5.5%
Avg move (10yr)
peak, day of release
±6.0%
Avg move (2yr)
regime: stable
±9.5%
95th-pct tail
credit shocks possible

COF’s decade-long average earnings move is about ±5.5%, with the last two years near ±6.0%. The 95th-percentile tail is about ±9.5% — credit-quality surprises and acquisition headlines (including the Discover deal narrative) can still produce double-digit reactions.

Does COF beat its implied move?

The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report. COF’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 38% of recent reports (6 of 16) — more often the stock finishes inside what options priced.

~38%
Beat rate
actual > implied (6 of 16)
Slightly
rich
Near-term pricing
live ~6.6% vs ~5.5% avg
What this implies With a ~38% beat rate, Capital One historically undershoots its implied move more often than not — a profile where IV crush matters even when the headline move looks "big enough." Heading into July 21, 2026, the live implied move has been pricing near ±6.6%.

How COF’s moves are distributed

0% 5% 10% 15% 10-yr avg ±5.5% ±1.8% 5th ±3.2% 20th ±5.2% median ±7.9% 80th ±9.5% 95th
The spread of COF’s earnings-day moves by percentile. Half of reports land within roughly ±5.2%; the 95th-percentile worst case is about ±9.5%.

The distribution is moderate and clustered: four in five COF earnings moves stay under ±7.9%, with occasional credit-cycle spikes toward ±9.5%.

Recent COF earnings

October 2023 peaked near +11.5% against ~±5.3% implied — a clear beat. January 2026 dropped about -7.8% vs ~±3.7% implied. Card issuers can gap on reserve builds and net charge-off guidance, not just EPS beats.

See the full history The complete report-by-report record — every past implied vs actual move, open/peak/close behaviour and post-earnings drift, plus the live implied move as the next date approaches — lives in the EarningsWatcher app.

IV rush and IV crush on COF

Implied volatility builds into the AMC report (the IV rush) and collapses on the next session (the IV crush). With a sub-50% beat rate, understanding whether the peak move clears the implied band — not just the close — is central to reading COF options through earnings.

What COF’s earnings data means for options

These figures are a reference point, not a signal. Capital One clears its implied move in roughly two of every five reports (~38%). Compare the live implied move against this history in the EarningsWatcher app before forming a view.

On the “next” implied move Capital One is scheduled to report July 21, 2026 (after market close). As of July 14, 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near ±6.6%.

Frequently asked questions

When is Capital One (COF) earnings date in July 2026?

Capital One is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, after the market close (AMC). Confirm the exact time on a live earnings calendar.

What is COF's implied move for earnings July 21, 2026?

As of July 14, 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near plus or minus 6.6% — modestly above the plus or minus 5.5% decade average.

How much does COF move on earnings?

Over its last 16 earnings reports (as of July 2026), Capital One's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 5.5%, with a median near plus or minus 5.2%. The 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 9.5%.

Does COF usually beat its implied move?

Less often than not. COF's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 38% of recent reports (roughly 6 of 16). See the full history in the EarningsWatcher app.

See COF’s live earnings data

Get Capital One’s July 21 report date, live implied move and full move history.

Open COF in the app →