Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is the foundry backbone of the AI trade — a name whose options often price a larger move than its decade average suggests. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last ~39 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 2026.
TSM earnings at a glance
TSM’s decade average earnings move is about ±4.9%, with the last two years at ±5.7% — a stable-to-firmer regime. The tail is real: the 95th-percentile move is about ±10.1% (January 2021 peaked near ±12.9%; October 2024 near ±13.4%).
Does TSM beat its implied move?
The implied move is what options price in before the report. Among recent reports with tracked implied moves, TSM’s actual peak move has topped the implied in about 56% of cases (9 of 16) — slightly more often than not.
10yr
How TSM’s moves are distributed
The distribution is moderate with occasional double-digit spikes: half of TSM’s earnings moves land within roughly ±3.9%, four in five stay under ±6.3%, but the 95th-percentile outlier reaches ±10.1%.
Recent TSM earnings
To make it concrete: October 2024’s peak move reached about ±13.4% against an implied move near ±5.7% — a dramatic beat — while April 2026 landed near ±3.9% against ~±4.8% implied. TSM can look sleepy on average and still produce AI-cycle outliers.
IV rush and IV crush on TSM
Implied volatility builds into the report (the IV rush) and collapses after (the IV crush). With a ~56% beat rate and a live implied move above history, TSM’s crush-vs-move tension is genuinely two-sided.
What TSM’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. TSM has cleared its implied move in about three of every five tracked reports (~60%), and the ±10.1% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. Test structures in the EarningsWatcher app.
- According to EarningsWatcher data, options price a ±5.0% move for TSM's October 15, 2026 earnings report (as of October 8, 2026).
- TSM has averaged a ±4.9% earnings-day move across its last 39 reports (10-year history, per EarningsWatcher).
- TSM's actual earnings move exceeded the options-implied move in 56% of those reports.
Frequently asked questions
How much does TSM (TSMC) move on earnings?
Over its last ~39 earnings reports (as of July 2026), TSMC's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 4.9%, with a median near plus or minus 3.9%. The last two years have averaged about plus or minus 5.7%. The 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 10.1%.
Does TSM usually beat its implied move?
Slightly more often than not among tracked reports. TSM's actual peak move has topped its options-implied move in about 56% of those reports (roughly 9 of 16).
What is TSM's implied move for earnings?
TSMC reported July 16, 2026 (before the open); options priced plus or minus 4.2% at the last close before the report, below the plus or minus 4.9% decade average (plus or minus 7.4% in early July). Check the live figure in the EarningsWatcher app.
When did TSMC (TSM) report earnings in July 2026?
TSMC reported Q2 2026 results on July 16, 2026, before the market open (BMO). Confirm the exact time on a live earnings calendar before trading.