EarningsWatcher uses the peak intraday earnings move as its default historical move. That convention captures the largest absolute price excursion associated with the report, rather than only one selected closing price. Options can react quickly after a release, so a close-to-close figure may miss relevant intraday risk.
Peak earnings move (the default)
The default move is the largest absolute percentage move during the earnings-event window. In the Moves analyzer, the standard view uses a 10-year range, the day phase, and the peak move setting. It answers: “How far did the stock get from its pre-earnings reference price at any point in the event session?”
Other views, such as an open/close change, can be useful for a different question. They should not be treated as interchangeable with the default peak-move history.
Implied move
The implied move is the size of the earnings move the options market is pricing before the report. A practical approximation is the price of the at-the-money call plus put for the expiry that covers earnings, expressed as a percentage of the stock price. It is a market-implied range, not a directional forecast and not a guarantee.
Because option prices and implied volatility change throughout the day, the implied move is timestamped: a number seen earlier may differ from the one visible shortly before the release. Use the expected move calculator to understand the approximation, and the implied-move guide for context.
Beat rate: actual peak versus implied
A report is counted as a “beat” when the absolute realized peak move exceeds the options-implied move recorded for that report. Beat rate is the share of eligible historical reports that met that test:
It measures move size only. It does not say whether a stock rose or fell, whether a particular options structure was profitable, or what will happen next quarter. See the public expected-moves study for the published cross-stock sample and its dates.
IV rush and IV crush
IV rush
Implied volatility can rise into earnings as event uncertainty is priced into options. The IV rush guide explains the pre-event pattern at a high level.
IV crush
After results resolve the scheduled uncertainty, implied volatility often falls sharply. That decline can reduce option extrinsic value; see what IV crush means.
Neither label is a prediction or a trade instruction. The size and timing vary by symbol, expiration, strike, liquidity, and the event itself.
Data timestamps and earnings dates
Market inputs are time-sensitive. EarningsWatcher displays or calculates option-derived figures from the data available at the relevant observation time; they may change as quotes, spreads, and implied volatility update. Historical event rows use the information recorded for that event where available.
Confirmed earnings dates are dates announced by the company or otherwise verified by the platform’s data sources. Estimated earnings dates are calendar estimates that can move as a company updates its schedule. A date is not a confirmation of release time; “BMO” and “AMC” identify before-market-open and after-market-close timing when known. Always verify the company’s investor-relations announcement before acting on a calendar entry.
How to use this research
Historical distributions and implied moves are research inputs, not forecasts. A smaller implied move than past averages does not establish an edge; a high beat rate does not predict the next report. Liquidity, spreads, corporate actions, market regime, data availability, and methodology changes can affect interpretation.
Use the data to ask better questions, then model a defined scenario in the EarningsWatcher tools. Read the expected-moves study alongside the IV crush calculator rather than relying on one metric.