An expected move calculator estimates how big a swing options are pricing for an earnings report. The usual formula is: ATM straddle price ÷ stock price. Example: a $14 straddle on a $200 stock ≈ ±7%. That figure is a size, not a direction — and it changes as the report nears. The box below does the arithmetic only; it does not pull live EarningsWatcher chains or history.
Try the formula
Enter any illustrative numbers (or quotes from your broker). Nothing here is platform data.
How the calculation works
Use the expiration that spans the earnings date, and the strike nearest the stock price. Spreads, wrong expirations, and stale quotes all make a hand-built figure noisy — which is why most people prefer a platform that reads the chain for them. Step-by-step walkthrough: how to calculate the implied move.
What the number does (and doesn’t) mean
- Does: summarize the range options are pricing for the event.
- Does: give a yardstick to compare against a stock’s own past moves.
- Doesn’t: predict the actual post-earnings move or direction.
- Doesn’t: include IV crush after the print — that’s a separate effect (IV crush after earnings).
Common mistakes
- Using an expiration that doesn’t cover the report.
- Mixing mid/mark with last print on a wide bid-ask.
- Treating a far-out figure as “live” weeks before earnings — it only firms up late.
- Assuming a bigger expected move means a better trade. Size ≠ edge.
How EarningsWatcher helps
Once you understand the formula, the useful next step is live expected moves next to each stock’s historical distribution — Calendar, Moves analyser, and related tools. The free wiki shows a curated weekly preview; the platform has the full list and updating figures. Soft next step: see plans & join.
Frequently asked questions
How does an expected move calculator work?
You enter the stock price and the at-the-money straddle price (call plus put on the earnings expiration). The calculator divides straddle by stock price to estimate the implied move percentage. Example: $14 straddle on a $200 stock ≈ ±7%.
Is this the same as the live implied move in EarningsWatcher?
No. This page is an educational formula tool using numbers you type in. EarningsWatcher computes live implied moves from option chains for each reporting stock, alongside historical move distributions — available when you join the platform.
Does the expected move predict the actual earnings move?
No. The expected (implied) move is what options are pricing, not a forecast of what will happen. Some stocks clear it often; others undershoot. Compare the live figure to each name’s history inside EarningsWatcher.
Where can I get live expected moves for this week’s earnings?
Join EarningsWatcher for the full calendar and live implied moves. The free wiki shows a curated weekly preview at /wiki/earnings-this-week; the platform has every name and updating figures.
Education only. Not investment advice. This calculator uses inputs you provide; it does not display EarningsWatcher proprietary data. Options involve risk.