The expected move (or implied move) is how big a swing the options market prices in for an earnings report. Whether a stock “beats” it — moves more than priced in — varies widely. Across the last ~16 reports for each name (as of June 2026), beat rates range from about 25% (NVDA) to 63% (AMD and Meta). The key takeaway up front: being a big mover is not the same as beating the implied move. NVIDIA moves a lot yet usually lands under what options priced in, while AMD and Meta clear it nearly two-thirds of the time.
Expected move vs. beat rate, by stock
| Stock | Avg move (10yr) | 95th-pct tail | Beats implied move |
|---|---|---|---|
| META Meta | ±11.8% | ±25.8% | 63% (10 of 16) |
| AMD AMD | ±10.7% | ±21.2% | 63% (10 of 16) |
| AMZN Amazon | ±7.4% | ±13.7% | 60% (9 of 15) |
| TSLA Tesla | ±9.3% | ±16.3% | 56% (9 of 16) |
| GOOGL Alphabet | ±6.5% | ±10.3% | 56% (9 of 16) |
| MSFT Microsoft | ±5.0% | ±9.4% | 50% (8 of 16) |
| AAPL Apple | ±4.9% | ±8.1% | 44% (7 of 16) |
| NVDA NVIDIA | ±8.3% | ±20.1% | 25% (4 of 16) |
How to read it. “Avg move (10yr)” is the typical earnings-day peak move over roughly the last decade. “95th-pct tail” is the realistic worst-case move. “Beats implied move” is how often the actual move exceeded the options-implied move — the figure that decides whether option buyers or sellers had the historical edge. Tap any ticker for its full playbook.
What the data shows
- High volatility ≠ high beat rate. NVIDIA averages a large ±8.3% move but beats its implied move only ~25% of the time; the premium is usually rich enough to cover it.
- Mega-caps often move less than implied. Apple (~44%) and NVIDIA (~25%) have historically come in under the implied move more often than not.
- The big beaters. AMD and Meta clear their implied move ~63% of the time, and when they beat, they tend to do so by wide margins — with the widest tails in the group.
- Beat rate says nothing about direction. It only measures move size versus what was priced — not whether the stock went up or down.
Why the expected move and beat rate matter
Going into a report, implied volatility — and option prices — climb (the IV rush), then collapse the morning after (the IV crush). A stock’s beat-rate history is the cleanest way to gauge whether that rich pre-earnings premium has tended to be worth paying. It is a reference point, not a signal: the live implied move versus a stock’s own history is what matters each quarter.
Per-stock earnings playbooks
Full move history, distribution and IV behaviour for each name:
- Meta (META) earnings options
- AMD (AMD) earnings options
- Amazon (AMZN) earnings options
- Tesla (TSLA) earnings options
- Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings options
- Microsoft (MSFT) earnings options
- Apple (AAPL) earnings options
- NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings options
Frequently asked questions
What is an expected (implied) move on earnings?
The expected move — also called the implied move — is how big a price swing the options market is pricing in for an upcoming earnings report. It is derived from option prices (roughly the cost of the at-the-money straddle for the expiry covering the report) and only firms up in the days before earnings. It is the market's one-standard-deviation estimate of the post-earnings move, not a prediction of direction.
Which stock beats its implied move most often?
In our data (last ~16 reports, as of June 2026), AMD and Meta have the highest beat rates at about 63% — they cleared their implied move in roughly 10 of 16 reports. Amazon (~60%) is next. NVIDIA has the lowest at about 25%, meaning it usually moves less than options priced in despite being a large mover.
Do stocks usually move more or less than the implied move?
It varies by stock and there is no universal rule. Several mega-caps (Apple ~44%, NVIDIA ~25%) have historically moved less than their implied move more often than not, which tends to favor option sellers; higher-beta names like AMD and Meta have beaten it more often. The only reliable approach is to compare a given quarter's live implied move against that stock's own history.
How is the expected move calculated?
It is read from the options market: a common approximation is the price of the at-the-money straddle (call + put) for the nearest expiry after the report, expressed as a percentage of the stock price. Because it depends on live implied volatility, it changes constantly and is only meaningful in the window before an earnings date.