Apple (AAPL) is the steadiest of the mega-cap earnings events — and the data backs that up, with a twist that matters for how its options behave. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 28, 2026. The numbers describe history, so they’re useful whether you’re reading this months before a report or the week of one.
AAPL earnings at a glance
Apple’s typical earnings move is modest — about ±4.9% over a decade, with half of reports landing inside ±4.3%. The tail is the most contained of the mega-caps: the 95th-percentile move is about ±8.8%. Apple is simply not a high-dispersion earnings name, and that shapes everything about how its options behave.
Does AAPL beat its implied move?
This is the question that decides whether buying or selling premium has an edge. The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. Over its last 17 reports, AAPL’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 53% of cases (9 of 17) — essentially a coin flip, and among the tightest distributions of the mega-caps we track.
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How AAPL’s moves are distributed
The distribution is tight and front-loaded: the 20th percentile is just ±2.9%, the median ±4.3%, and even the 95th-percentile outlier is about ±8.1%, with a low standard deviation around ±2.1%. Small, orderly reactions are genuinely the base case for Apple — which is why its implied move has so often turned out to be larger than the move that followed.
Recent AAPL earnings
To make it concrete: a +5.8% pop in April 2026 cleared Apple’s ~3.8% implied move, but the January report came in well under what options priced in — the more common outcome. Apple delivers the occasional surprise, but more often the move is smaller than the market feared.
IV rush and IV crush on AAPL
Implied volatility builds into the report (the IV rush) and drops sharply afterward (the IV crush). Apple’s coin-flip beat rate means the crush has historically cut both ways for long premium — the recurring question behind holding options through earnings.
What AAPL’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. Apple has moved less than its implied move more often than not (a ~53% beat rate), and the ±8.1% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. The practical use is to compare a given quarter’s live implied move against this history — and to understand how each structure behaves around that move: a straddle or strangle needs the actual move to exceed the implied to pay, while an iron condor or butterfly needs it to stay smaller. You can test any of them against Apple’s full history in the EarningsWatcher app rather than relying on a rule of thumb.
- Options had priced a ±3.9% move going into AAPL's July 30, 2026 earnings report.
- AAPL has averaged a ±4.9% earnings-day move across its last 40 reports (10-year history, per EarningsWatcher).
- AAPL's actual earnings move exceeded the options-implied move in 53% of those reports.
Frequently asked questions
When is Apple (AAPL) earnings date in July 2026?
Apple reported Q3 2026 results on Thursday, July 30, 2026, after the market close (AMC).
What is AAPL's implied move for earnings July 30, 2026?
Options priced a plus or minus 3.9% move into the July 30, 2026 report. The realised move is published once the following full session completes. — compare it to the plus or minus 3.5% two-year average.
How much does AAPL move on earnings?
Over its last 16 earnings reports (roughly the past 10 years, as of July 28, 2026), AAPL's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 4.8%, with a median near plus or minus 4.3%. Tail risk is contained: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 8.1%, making Apple the steadiest of the mega-cap earnings events.
Does AAPL usually beat its implied move?
About half the time. Apple's actual move has topped its options-implied move in only about 53% of recent reports (roughly 9 of 17) — below a coin flip. That means Apple has moved less than the options market priced in more often than not, which has historically favored premium sellers.
What is AAPL's implied move for earnings?
The implied move only firms up as an earnings date approaches, so there is no meaningful implied move far in advance. As a reference, AAPL's recent reports have priced implied moves of roughly 4% to 4.5%. Check the live implied move in the EarningsWatcher app as the next report nears, and compare it to the plus or minus 4.8% historical average.