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AMZN Earnings: Implied Move, History & IV Crush

How much does Amazon move on earnings, how often does it actually beat its implied move, and what does that mean for options? Here’s the data — and how to read it.

EarningsWatcher Research 7 min read Data as of June 2026 · Education, not advice

Amazon (AMZN) sits in the middle of the mega-cap volatility spectrum — bigger moves than Apple or Microsoft, calmer than Tesla or Meta — with a mild lean toward beating its implied move. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 15 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of June 2026. The numbers describe history, so they’re useful whether you’re reading this months before a report or the week of one.

AMZN earnings at a glance

±7.4%
Avg move (10yr)
peak, day of release
±7.6%
Median move
half of reports move less
±13.7%
95th-pct tail
moderate outliers

Amazon’s typical earnings move is moderate — about ±7.4% over a decade, median ±7.6% — with a 95th-percentile tail around ±13.7%. It’s a meaningful mover without the extreme dispersion of the highest-beta names, which makes its option premiums substantial but not eye-watering.

Does AMZN beat its implied move?

This is the question that decides whether buying or selling premium has an edge. The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. Over its last 15 reports, AMZN’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 60% of cases (9 of 15) — a clear lean toward beating what options priced in.

~60%
Beat rate
actual > implied (9 of 15)
Buyer-
tilted
Historical edge
beats implied more often than not
What this implies A 60% beat rate puts Amazon on the buyer-friendly side of the historical ledger — its actual move has cleared the implied move more often than not. It’s a tendency to weigh rather than a rule, and the ±13.7% tail marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand.

How AMZN’s moves are distributed

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 10-yr avg ±7.4% ±2.1% 5th ±4.1% 20th ±7.6% median ±10.1% 80th ±13.7% 95th
The spread of AMZN’s earnings-day moves by percentile. The median is about ±7.6%; the 95th-percentile worst case is around ±13.7%.

The distribution is moderately wide: the median is ±7.6%, four in five reports stay under ±10.1%, and the 95th-percentile outlier reaches ±13.7%, with a standard deviation around ±3.9%. Amazon reliably moves on earnings, but the truly extreme gaps are rarer than in names like AMD or Meta.

Recent AMZN earnings

To make it concrete: a +4.1% move in April 2026 stayed under Amazon’s ~8.1% implied, while the prior quarter’s drop beat the ~8.7% priced in — the two-sided pattern behind its 60% long-run rate. Any single quarter can land either way.

See the full history The complete report-by-report record — every past implied vs actual move, open/peak/close behaviour and post-earnings drift, plus the live implied move as the next date approaches — lives in the EarningsWatcher app.

IV rush and IV crush on AMZN

Implied volatility climbs into the report (the IV rush) and collapses afterward (the IV crush). With a 60% beat rate, Amazon has cleared its implied move often enough that the crush cuts both ways — the question at the core of holding options through earnings.

What AMZN’s earnings data means for options

These figures are a reference point, not a signal. Amazon has cleared its implied move more often than not (about 60%), and the ±13.7% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. The practical use is to compare a given quarter’s live implied move against this history — and to understand how each structure behaves around that move: a straddle or strangle needs the actual move to exceed the implied to pay, while an iron condor or butterfly needs it to stay smaller. You can test any of them against Amazon’s full history in the EarningsWatcher app rather than relying on a rule of thumb.

On the “next” implied move There is no meaningful implied move far ahead of a report — it only firms up as the date nears. As a reference, AMZN’s recent implied moves have priced in roughly 8% to 9%. When the next report approaches, check the live implied move in the app and compare it to the ±7.4% history.

Frequently asked questions

How much does AMZN move on earnings?

Over its last 15 earnings reports (roughly the past 10 years, as of June 2026), AMZN's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 7.4%, with a median near plus or minus 7.6%. Tail risk is moderate: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 13.7%.

Does AMZN usually beat its implied move?

Slightly more often than not. Amazon's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 60% of recent reports (roughly 9 of 15). That buyer-tilted lean is a tendency to weigh each quarter, though you still pay elevated implied volatility going in and face the IV crush afterward.

What is AMZN's implied move for earnings?

The implied move only firms up as an earnings date approaches, so there is no meaningful implied move far in advance. As a reference, AMZN's recent reports have priced implied moves of roughly 8% to 9%. Check the live implied move in the EarningsWatcher app as the next report nears, and compare it to the plus or minus 7.4% historical average.

When does Amazon (AMZN) report earnings?

Amazon reports quarterly, after the market close (AMC), typically in late January or early February, late April, late July or early August, and late October. Confirm the exact upcoming date on a live earnings calendar before trading.

See AMZN’s live earnings data

Get Amazon’s upcoming date, the live implied move as it firms up, and the full history of past moves.

Open AMZN in the app →