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AMD Earnings: Implied Move, History & IV Crush

How much does AMD move on earnings, how often does it actually beat its implied move, and what does that mean for options? Here’s the data — and how to read it.

EarningsWatcher Research 7 min read Data as of June 2026 · Education, not advice

AMD is a high-octane earnings name: large moves, a wide tail, and a habit of moving past what options price in. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of June 2026. The numbers describe history, so they’re useful whether you’re reading this months before a report or the week of one.

AMD earnings at a glance

±10.7%
Avg move (10yr)
peak, day of release
±9.9%
Median move
half of reports move less
±21.2%
95th-pct tail
wide outliers

AMD’s typical earnings move is big — about ±10.7% over a decade, median ±9.9% — and the tail is wide, with a 95th-percentile move around ±21.2%. This is one of the higher-dispersion names in large-cap tech, and the option premiums going into its reports are correspondingly rich.

Does AMD beat its implied move?

This is the question that decides whether buying or selling premium has an edge. The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. AMD’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 63% of recent reports (10 of 16) — one of the highest beat rates we track. Put plainly: AMD has frequently moved more than the options market priced in.

~63%
Beat rate
actual > implied (10 of 16)
Buyer-
tilted
Historical edge
frequently overshoots implied
What this implies A 63% beat rate is unusually high — AMD has cleared its implied move in nearly two of every three reports, and when it beats, it has often done so by a wide margin. Historically that has been favorable to premium buyers and challenging for sellers, while the wide tail means any position faces meaningful risk in both directions.

How AMD’s moves are distributed

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 10-yr avg ±10.7% ±4.2% 5th ±5.7% 20th ±9.9% median ±14.4% 80th ±21.2% 95th
The spread of AMD’s earnings-day moves by percentile. The median is about ±9.9%; the 95th-percentile worst case reaches ±21.2%.

The distribution is wide with a long right tail: the median is ±9.9%, four in five reports stay under ±14.4%, but the 95th-percentile outlier stretches to ±21.2%, with a high standard deviation around ±5.3%. Double-digit moves are the norm rather than the exception.

Recent AMD earnings

To make it concrete: AMD’s two most recent reports were textbook — a +21.2% surge and a −17.7% plunge, each more than double the ~8–9% implied move. The quarter before came in under implied, a reminder that even high-beat names aren’t one-way, but the overshoot tendency is clear.

See the full history The complete report-by-report record — every past implied vs actual move, open/peak/close behaviour and post-earnings drift, plus the live implied move as the next date approaches — lives in the EarningsWatcher app.

IV rush and IV crush on AMD

Implied volatility spikes into the report (the IV rush) and collapses afterward (the IV crush). AMD’s frequent, large overshoots mean the crush has not reliably favored sellers — when the move beats the implied, long premium can still come out ahead despite it, which is the two-sided nature of holding options through earnings.

What AMD’s earnings data means for options

These figures are a reference point, not a signal. AMD has cleared its implied move in nearly two of every three reports (about 63%), and the ±21.2% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. The practical use is to compare a given quarter’s live implied move against this history — and to understand how each structure behaves around that move: a straddle or strangle needs the actual move to exceed the implied to pay, while an iron condor or butterfly needs it to stay smaller. You can test any of them against AMD’s full history in the EarningsWatcher app rather than relying on a rule of thumb.

On the “next” implied move There is no meaningful implied move far ahead of a report — it only firms up as the date nears. As a reference, AMD’s recent implied moves have priced in roughly 8% to 9%. When the next report approaches, check the live implied move in the app and compare it to the ±10.7% history.

Frequently asked questions

How much does AMD move on earnings?

Over its last 16 earnings reports (roughly the past 10 years, as of June 2026), AMD's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 10.7%, with a median near plus or minus 9.9%. Tail risk is high: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 21.2%, so double-digit reactions are the norm.

Does AMD usually beat its implied move?

More often than not. AMD's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 63% of recent reports (roughly 10 of 16) — one of the highest beat rates among large-cap tech. When AMD beats its implied move, it often does so by a wide margin, which has historically been favorable to premium buyers; the wide tail also means positions on either side carry significant risk.

What is AMD's implied move for earnings?

The implied move only firms up as an earnings date approaches, so there is no meaningful implied move far in advance. As a reference, AMD's recent reports have priced implied moves of roughly 8% to 9%. Check the live implied move in the EarningsWatcher app as the next report nears, and compare it to the plus or minus 10.7% historical average.

When does AMD report earnings?

AMD reports quarterly, after the market close (AMC), typically in late January or early February, late April or early May, late July or early August, and late October or early November. Confirm the exact upcoming date on a live earnings calendar before trading.

See AMD’s live earnings data

Get AMD’s upcoming date, the live implied move as it firms up, and the full history of past moves.

Open AMD in the app →