Nike (NKE) has become one of the more volatile large-cap consumer earnings events — and its reactions have been getting bigger. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last 16 reports (as of June 2026). The numbers describe history, so they’re useful whether you’re reading this months before a report or the week of one.
NKE earnings at a glance
Nike’s typical earnings move is large for a consumer name — about ±8.8% over a decade — and it has been heating up: the last two years have run hotter at about ±10.4%. The tail is genuinely fat, with a 95th-percentile move around ±15.7%, so double-digit reactions are a regular feature rather than a freak event.
Does NKE beat its implied move?
This is the question that decides whether buying or selling premium has an edge. The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. NKE’s actual move has topped the implied move in about 69% of recent reports (11 of 16) — one of the highest beat rates we track. Put plainly: Nike has frequently moved more than the options market priced in.
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How NKE’s actual moves compare to its implied move
The pattern behind the ~69% beat rate is visible: in most recent quarters Nike’s actual move overshot what options priced in — sometimes dramatically (about ±18.6% in June 2025 against an ~8.2% implied, and ±20.9% in June 2024 against ~9.9%). The exceptions undershoot by a wide margin (about ±2.9% in December 2024 against a ~9.0% implied), which is why the long-run average still lands close to the implied even though beats are frequent.
Recent NKE earnings
To make it concrete: Nike’s two biggest recent reactions — roughly ±20.9% in June 2024 and ±18.6% in June 2025 — each more than doubled their ~8–9% implied move, while December 2024 came in far under at about ±2.9%. The overshoot tendency is clear, but the misses can be large too, which is why the 16-report record matters more than any single quarter.
IV rush and IV crush on NKE
Like every earnings event, implied volatility builds into the report (the IV rush) and collapses the morning after (the IV crush). Because Nike has overshot its implied move so often, the crush has not reliably favored sellers — when the actual move clears the implied by a wide margin, long premium can come out ahead despite the crush, which is the two-sided nature of holding options through earnings.
What NKE’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. Nike has cleared its implied move in roughly two of every three reports (about 69%), the regime has been heating up (±10.4% over the last two years vs ±8.8% over ten), and the ±15.7% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. The practical use is to compare a given quarter’s live implied move against this history — and to understand how each structure behaves around that move: a straddle or strangle needs the actual move to exceed the implied to pay, while an iron condor or butterfly needs it to stay smaller. You can test any of them against Nike’s full history in the EarningsWatcher app rather than relying on a rule of thumb.
Frequently asked questions
How much does NKE move on earnings?
Over its last 16 earnings reports (as of June 2026), NKE's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 8.8%, and the last two years have run hotter at about plus or minus 10.4%, so Nike's earnings reactions have been heating up. Tail risk is high: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 15.7%, so double-digit reactions are common.
Does NKE usually beat its implied move?
More often than not. Nike's actual move has topped its options-implied move in about 69% of recent reports (roughly 11 of 16) — one of the higher beat rates among large caps. Over the long run, though, its implied move has still been a reasonable estimate of the average outcome, because the quarters Nike comes in under the implied tend to undershoot by a wide margin.
What is NKE's implied move for earnings?
The implied move only firms up as an earnings date approaches, so there is no meaningful implied move far in advance. As a reference, NKE's recent reports have priced implied moves of roughly 8% to 9%. Check the live implied move in the EarningsWatcher app as the next report nears, and compare it to the plus or minus 8.8% historical average.
When does Nike (NKE) report earnings?
Nike reports on a fiscal-year calendar, after the market close (AMC), typically in late September, mid-to-late December, late March and late June. Confirm the exact upcoming date on a live earnings calendar before trading.