ASML (ASML) is the bellwether for semiconductor equipment — a higher-dispersion earnings name whose recent regime has run much hotter than its decade average. Below is its earnings behaviour based on the last ~39 reports (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 2026.
ASML earnings at a glance
ASML’s decade-long average earnings move is about ±5.8%, but the last two years have run hotter at ±7.9% — a heating-up regime. The 95th-percentile tail reaches about ±11.2%, and recent quarters have included double-digit gaps (July 2024 ≈ −13%, October 2024 ≈ −18%).
Does ASML beat its implied move?
The implied move is what the options market prices in before the report; the actual move is what happens. Among recent reports with tracked implied moves, ASML’s actual peak move has topped the implied in about 60% of cases (9 of 15) — more often than not, despite several recent undershoots.
10yr
How ASML’s moves are distributed
The distribution is moderate with a fattening right tail: half of ASML’s earnings moves land within roughly ±5.3%, four in five stay under ±8.0%, and the 95th-percentile outlier reaches ±11.2%. The two-year average (±7.9%) sits toward the upper half of that range.
Recent ASML earnings
To make it concrete: January 2026’s peak move was only about ±3.2% against an implied move near ±6.8% — a clear undershoot — while July 2024 peaked near ±13.1% against ~±6.4% implied and October 2024 near ±17.7% against ~±6.3% implied. The heating regime and the tail are both real; one quiet quarter does not erase them.
IV rush and IV crush on ASML
Implied volatility ramps into the report (the IV rush) and collapses after (the IV crush). With a ~60% beat rate but rich near-term implied moves, ASML’s history shows the crush cutting both ways — the tension in holding options through earnings.
What ASML’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. ASML has cleared its implied move in roughly three of every five tracked reports (~60%), the regime has been heating (±7.9% over two years vs ±5.8% over ten), and the ±11.2% 95th-percentile figure marks the realistic worst case any position would need to withstand. Test structures against the full history in the EarningsWatcher app.
Frequently asked questions
How much does ASML move on earnings?
Over its last ~39 earnings reports (roughly the past 10 years, as of July 2026), ASML's average earnings-day peak move was about plus or minus 5.8%, with a median near plus or minus 5.3%. The last two years have run hotter at about plus or minus 7.9%. Tail risk is meaningful: the 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 11.2%.
Does ASML usually beat its implied move?
More often than not among recent reports with tracked implied moves. ASML's actual peak move has topped its options-implied move in about 60% of those reports (roughly 9 of 15). Recent undershoots (e.g. January 2026) pull against that, which is why each quarter's live implied vs this history matters.
What is ASML's implied move for earnings?
ASML reported July 15, 2026 (before the open) with a peak move near plus or minus 3.1% — under the richer pre-print implied. Check the live figure for the next report in the EarningsWatcher app and compare it to the plus or minus 5.8% decade average.
When is the ASML earnings date in July 2026?
ASML reported Q2 2026 results on Wednesday, July 15, 2026, before the market open (BMO). Confirm any restatement timing on a live earnings calendar.