Q3 2026 earnings season halfway scorecard: implied vs actual moves

Halfway through the Q3 2026 reporting season, 4 of 5 confirmed reports moved more than the options market priced in. This is the record of what was expected versus what happened, across 383 tracked reports from July 14–November 9, 2026.

Updated November 10, 2026 · every figure computed from our public Q3 implied-vs-actual tracker · methodology · predecessor: Q2 2026 beat report

How to read this scorecard

The implied move is the size of the move options priced in before a report — a magnitude, not a direction, and not a forecast. Two different measurements appear below and they are deliberately never combined into one number:

• Confirmed rows compare the peak intraday earnings move with the last implied move published on our pages before the print.
• Provisional rows cover names that reported within the last few days. Their reaction is a cumulative close-based move while peak statistics settle — smaller than the peak by construction, so "inside so far" is a floor, not a verdict.

Where the market under-priced the move

The season's largest confirmed gap belongs to TSLA: ±6.3% priced in, ±15.6% delivered at the peak on Jul 22 — 2.5× what the options market expected.

Among the names still on a provisional (close-based) reading, these ran furthest past what was priced in:

• INTC — options priced ±8.5%, the initial reaction was -28.6% (3.4× the implied move) on Oct 29.
• REGN — options priced ±4.3%, the initial reaction was +13.3% (3.1× the implied move) on Oct 30.
• CRM — options priced ±8.1%, the initial reaction was +22.6% (2.8× the implied move) on Aug 26.

Priced for a big move, delivered less

The mirror image, and the more common outcome this season: double-digit implied moves where the initial reaction landed well inside the priced range. This is the pattern behind the term IV crush — the event passes, implied volatility collapses, and the move that was paid for never fully arrives.

• PAYX — ±29.0% priced in, -8.8% so far on Sep 23.
• UPST — ±13.3% priced in, +0.3% so far on Nov 3.
• RH — ±12.6% priced in, +0.0% so far on Sep 10.
• NG — ±12.7% priced in, -1.3% so far on Oct 8.
• NXPI — ±12.0% priced in, -0.7% so far on Oct 27.

These are close-based readings while peak data settles; a peak-based number is larger by construction, so treat each as the floor of that stock's real move.

The October 29 cluster

33 tracked names reported on Oct 29 carrying an average implied move of ±7.0% — the densest volatility day of the first half: RBLX (±15.3% priced, -18.1%), RDDT (±12.9% priced, -29.2%), PWR (±12.5% priced, +4.7%), PINS (±12.5% priced, -2.8%), RIVN (±11.2% priced, +6.2%), INTC (±8.5% priced, -28.6%), FSLR (±8.5% priced, -1.4%), SYK (±8.3% priced, -6.4%), AMZN (±8.0% priced, -1.4%), ING (±7.9% priced, -2.0%), NCLH (±7.9% priced, +13.4%), TT (±7.8% priced, -3.9%), SNDK (±7.6% priced, -13.5%), COIN (±7.4% priced, -10.6%), CAT (±7.0% priced, -9.3%), HWM (±7.0% priced, +5.5%), RKT (±6.5% priced, +7.4%), DHI (±6.3% priced, +2.5%), LLY (±6.3% priced, +6.6%), TTE (±5.7% priced, +1.2%), LIN (±5.4% priced, -1.0%), MSTR (±5.3% priced, -7.8%), SBUX (±5.2% priced, -1.7%), BUD (±5.1% priced, -1.8%), BMY (±4.9% priced, +1.4%), MRK (±4.4% priced, +3.8%), GILD (±4.3% priced, +3.1%), MO (±4.0% priced, +5.2%), MA (±3.5% priced, +4.2%), MDLZ (±3.5% priced, +3.9%), EPD (±3.4% priced, +2.6%), SHEL (±3.1% priced, +2.4%), ICE (±2.9% priced, +4.5%). Clustered prints matter for anyone holding several at once: the same session's volatility reset hits every position on the list simultaneously.

Confirmed reports — peak move vs implied

A dash means no pre-print implied move was recorded on our pages for that report, so it is shown but not scored.

Recently reported — provisional readings

Initial cumulative reaction versus the implied move recorded before the print. These rows are finalized to peak-based statistics as canonical data lands, and can only widen.

Reported — result not yet measurable

These names have already reported. Their implied move below is the last value recorded before the print and is frozen there; the realized move is published once a full session of trading has been read, and the row then joins the tables above.

Still to come — what options are pricing in now

The second half of the season starts with these names. Implied moves are the live pre-print values recorded on each stock's data page; they move until the print.

Each row links to that stock's live implied-move page, which updates daily and flips to the actual result after the report.

What the first half says about the second

Two things stand out in the data above. First, the largest implied moves were not the largest realized ones — several names priced for double-digit swings settled well inside their range, which is what an IV crush looks like from the outside. Second, the gaps that did open ran wide in both directions, so a report exceeding its implied move says nothing about which way it went. Neither pattern is a prediction about any specific stock still to report; this page describes what has already happened and is educational, not advice.

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Frequently asked questions

How often did stocks beat their implied move in Q3 2026 so far?

Of the confirmed reports in this scorecard — measured as peak intraday move versus the last pre-print implied move — 4 of 5 exceeded what options had priced in. A further 375 recently reported names are still on provisional, close-based readings, of which 108 have already passed their implied move.

What is the difference between a confirmed and a provisional row?

Confirmed rows compare the peak intraday earnings move with the last implied move recorded before the print. Provisional rows cover names that reported in the last few days: the reaction shown is a cumulative close-based move while the peak-based statistics settle, so it understates the full swing and can only move outward as data lands.

Does a stock beating its implied move mean a trade made money?

No. It describes the size of the realized move against the size options priced beforehand. What any specific position returned depends on structure, strikes, timing and the change in implied volatility around the event. This page is educational and is not advice.

What does the implied move actually measure?

It is the magnitude of the move the options market prices in for an earnings report, derived from near-dated option prices — not a direction, and not a forecast. Our expected-move calculator shows the arithmetic.

How is this scorecard kept honest?

Every figure is generated from the same tracker file the live scoreboard uses; implied moves are the values published on our pages before each print, never re-derived afterwards. Nothing is estimated, and rows are never removed when they are unflattering.