Q3 2026 earnings season halfway scorecard: implied vs actual moves
Halfway through the Q3 2026 reporting season, 4 of 5 confirmed reports moved more than the options market priced in. This is the record of what was expected versus what happened, across 87 tracked reports from July 14–September 10, 2026.
Updated September 11, 2026 · every figure computed from our public Q3 implied-vs-actual tracker · methodology · predecessor: Q2 2026 beat report
How to read this scorecard
The implied move is the size of the move options priced in before a report — a magnitude, not a direction, and not a forecast. Two different measurements appear below and they are deliberately never combined into one number:
- Confirmed rows compare the peak intraday earnings move with the last implied move published on our pages before the print.
- Provisional rows cover names that reported within the last few days. Their reaction is a cumulative close-based move while peak statistics settle — smaller than the peak by construction, so "inside so far" is a floor, not a verdict.
Where the market under-priced the move
The season's largest confirmed gap belongs to TSLA: ±6.3% priced in, ±15.6% delivered at the peak on Jul 22 — 2.5× what the options market expected.
Among the names still on a provisional (close-based) reading, these ran furthest past what was priced in:
- CRM — options priced ±8.1%, the initial reaction was +22.6% (2.8× the implied move) on Aug 26.
- NBIS — options priced ±13.1%, the initial reaction was +34.1% (2.6× the implied move) on Aug 12.
- CRWD — options priced ±8.2%, the initial reaction was +20.5% (2.5× the implied move) on Aug 26.
Priced for a big move, delivered less
The mirror image, and the more common outcome this season: double-digit implied moves where the initial reaction landed well inside the priced range. This is the pattern behind the term IV crush — the event passes, implied volatility collapses, and the move that was paid for never fully arrives.
- HIMS — ±14.2% priced in, -3.5% so far on Aug 10.
- NTAP — ±12.4% priced in, +2.6% so far on Sep 2.
- SNDK — ±16.2% priced in, -6.8% so far on Aug 5.
- RKLB — ±14.1% priced in, -4.8% so far on Aug 10.
- AVAV — ±12.0% priced in, +4.4% so far on Sep 9.
These are close-based readings while peak data settles; a peak-based number is larger by construction, so treat each as the floor of that stock's real move.
The August 5 cluster
7 tracked names reported on Aug 5 carrying an average implied move of ±13.8% — the densest volatility day of the first half: APP (±23.4% priced, -19.7%), WDC (±19.0% priced, -13.0%), SNDK (±16.2% priced, -6.8%), AXON (±13.7% priced, -14.3%), SHOP (±12.1% priced, +17.0%), UBER (±6.7% priced, -5.3%), DIS (±5.6% priced, +3.6%). Clustered prints matter for anyone holding several at once: the same session's volatility reset hits every position on the list simultaneously.
Confirmed reports — peak move vs implied
| Stock | Reported | Implied | Actual (peak) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | Jul 14 | ±4.6% | ±9.4% | Exceeded implied |
| ASML | Jul 15 | — | ±3.1% | — |
| NFLX | Jul 16 | ±11.0% | ±12.2% | Exceeded implied |
| TSLA | Jul 22 | ±6.3% | ±15.6% | Exceeded implied |
| GOOGL | Jul 22 | ±6.5% | ±7.9% | Exceeded implied |
| TXN | Jul 22 | ±9.9% | ±6.8% | Stayed inside |
| INTC | Jul 23 | — | ±8.6% | — |
A dash means no pre-print implied move was recorded on our pages for that report, so it is shown but not scored.
Recently reported — provisional readings
Initial cumulative reaction versus the implied move recorded before the print. These rows are finalized to peak-based statistics as canonical data lands, and can only widen.
| Stock | Reported | Pre-print implied | Reaction so far | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V | Jul 28 | — | +0.6% | — |
| MSFT | Jul 29 | ±8.6% | +15.5% | Already past implied |
| META | Jul 29 | ±8.2% | -8.0% | Inside so far |
| QCOM | Jul 29 | ±9.3% | -2.6% | Inside so far |
| AAPL | Jul 30 | ±3.9% | -7.4% | Already past implied |
| AMZN | Jul 30 | ±6.9% | +15.3% | Already past implied |
| COIN | Jul 30 | ±9.9% | -10.6% | Already past implied |
| PLTR | Aug 3 | ±12.2% | +29.5% | Already past implied |
| AMD | Aug 4 | ±8.2% | -7.0% | Inside so far |
| UBER | Aug 5 | ±6.7% | -5.3% | Inside so far |
| DIS | Aug 5 | ±5.6% | +3.6% | Inside so far |
| SHOP | Aug 5 | ±12.1% | +17.0% | Already past implied |
| SNDK | Aug 5 | ±16.2% | -6.8% | Inside so far |
| WDC | Aug 5 | ±19.0% | -13.0% | Inside so far |
| APP | Aug 5 | ±23.4% | -19.7% | Inside so far |
| AXON | Aug 5 | ±13.7% | -14.3% | Already past implied |
| DDOG | Aug 6 | ±21.4% | -19.0% | Inside so far |
| RKLB | Aug 10 | ±14.1% | -4.8% | Inside so far |
| FERG | Aug 10 | ±8.2% | +2.8% | Inside so far |
| HIMS | Aug 10 | ±14.2% | -3.5% | Inside so far |
| SE | Aug 11 | ±11.8% | +14.6% | Already past implied |
| ESLT | Aug 11 | ±8.3% | -8.3% | Already past implied |
| CRWV | Aug 11 | ±13.1% | +19.3% | Already past implied |
| LITE | Aug 11 | ±11.6% | +13.6% | Already past implied |
| SMCI | Aug 11 | ±13.9% | +19.0% | Already past implied |
| NBIS | Aug 12 | ±13.1% | +34.1% | Already past implied |
| COHR | Aug 12 | ±12.8% | -8.0% | Inside so far |
| CSCO | Aug 12 | ±8.3% | -8.4% | Already past implied |
| TPR | Aug 13 | ±8.9% | -16.5% | Already past implied |
| AMAT | Aug 13 | ±7.4% | -5.1% | Inside so far |
| HD | Aug 18 | ±4.6% | -0.1% | Inside so far |
| BIDU | Aug 18 | ±10.4% | -12.7% | Already past implied |
| KEYS | Aug 18 | ±9.3% | -6.3% | Inside so far |
| LOW | Aug 19 | ±4.9% | +2.0% | Inside so far |
| TGT | Aug 19 | ±7.0% | +4.3% | Inside so far |
| TJX | Aug 19 | ±4.5% | -4.2% | Inside so far |
| ADI | Aug 19 | ±6.5% | -0.9% | Inside so far |
| EL | Aug 19 | ±8.8% | +16.3% | Already past implied |
| VIK | Aug 19 | ±7.6% | -7.7% | Already past implied |
| DE | Aug 20 | ±5.2% | +6.9% | Already past implied |
| WMT | Aug 20 | ±5.2% | -9.2% | Already past implied |
| NTES | Aug 20 | ±5.7% | -5.8% | Already past implied |
| BABA | Aug 20 | ±6.6% | +1.3% | Inside so far |
| ROST | Aug 20 | ±6.6% | +4.4% | Inside so far |
| PDD | Aug 24 | ±7.6% | -1.5% | Inside so far |
| BMO | Aug 25 | ±5.0% | +0.6% | Inside so far |
| BNS | Aug 25 | ±4.7% | +7.2% | Already past implied |
| INTU | Aug 25 | ±8.4% | -3.2% | Inside so far |
| HEI | Aug 25 | ±8.5% | -1.4% | Inside so far |
| NVDA | Aug 26 | ±5.9% | +8.7% | Already past implied |
| CRWD | Aug 26 | ±8.2% | +20.5% | Already past implied |
| CRM | Aug 26 | ±8.1% | +22.6% | Already past implied |
| SNPS | Aug 26 | ±8.8% | +13.4% | Already past implied |
| A | Aug 26 | ±8.8% | +1.7% | Inside so far |
| VEEV | Aug 26 | ±12.0% | +15.2% | Already past implied |
| CM | Aug 27 | ±6.0% | -2.8% | Inside so far |
| RY | Aug 27 | ±4.9% | -1.3% | Inside so far |
| TD | Aug 27 | ±4.1% | +1.4% | Inside so far |
| MRVL | Aug 27 | ±10.5% | -10.3% | Inside so far |
| ADSK | Aug 27 | ±8.3% | -3.7% | Inside so far |
| WDAY | Aug 27 | ±7.4% | +5.8% | Inside so far |
| MDT | Sep 1 | ±5.0% | +1.5% | Inside so far |
| PANW | Sep 1 | ±9.4% | -9.3% | Inside so far |
| DELL | Sep 1 | ±10.4% | +15.8% | Already past implied |
| CRDO | Sep 1 | ±11.8% | -20.0% | Already past implied |
| MDB | Sep 1 | ±16.1% | -13.5% | Inside so far |
| AVGO | Sep 2 | ±8.1% | -2.7% | Inside so far |
| SNOW | Sep 2 | ±12.8% | +16.6% | Already past implied |
| HPE | Sep 2 | ±11.0% | +5.0% | Inside so far |
| NTAP | Sep 2 | ±12.4% | +2.6% | Inside so far |
| CIEN | Sep 3 | ±11.3% | -10.4% | Inside so far |
| CASY | Sep 8 | ±8.8% | -14.2% | Already past implied |
| GME | Sep 8 | ±4.8% | +5.3% | Already past implied |
| ASO | Sep 9 | ±8.2% | +14.4% | Already past implied |
| CHWY | Sep 9 | ±10.0% | -10.8% | Already past implied |
| SIG | Sep 9 | ±9.8% | +24.0% | Already past implied |
| AEO | Sep 9 | ±13.7% | -14.0% | Already past implied |
| AVAV | Sep 9 | ±12.0% | +4.4% | Inside so far |
| COO | Sep 9 | ±7.9% | -14.7% | Already past implied |
| M | Sep 10 | ±7.7% | -4.7% | Inside so far |
Reported — result not yet measurable
These names have already reported. Their implied move below is the last value recorded before the print and is frozen there; the realized move is published once a full session of trading has been read, and the row then joins the tables above.
| Stock | Reported | Pre-print implied |
|---|---|---|
| ADBE | Sep 10 after close | ±8.3% |
| ORCL | Sep 10 after close | ±11.9% |
| CPRT | Sep 10 after close | ±7.0% |
| RH | Sep 10 after close | ±12.6% |
| DSGX | Sep 10 after close | ±8.0% |
| KR | Sep 11 before open | ±6.5% |
Still to come — what options are pricing in now
The second half of the season starts with these names. Implied moves are the live pre-print values recorded on each stock's data page; they move until the print.
| Stock | Reports | Implied move |
|---|---|---|
| PLAY | Sep 14 after close | ±18.2% |
| TCOM | Sep 15 after close | ±7.1% |
| LEN | Sep 16 after close | ±6.6% |
Each row links to that stock's live implied-move page, which updates daily and flips to the actual result after the report.
What the first half says about the second
Two things stand out in the data above. First, the largest implied moves were not the largest realized ones — several names priced for double-digit swings settled well inside their range, which is what an IV crush looks like from the outside. Second, the gaps that did open ran wide in both directions, so a report exceeding its implied move says nothing about which way it went. Neither pattern is a prediction about any specific stock still to report; this page describes what has already happened and is educational, not advice.
Frequently asked questions
How often did stocks beat their implied move in Q3 2026 so far?
Of the confirmed reports in this scorecard — measured as peak intraday move versus the last pre-print implied move — 4 of 5 exceeded what options had priced in. A further 79 recently reported names are still on provisional, close-based readings, of which 37 have already passed their implied move.
What is the difference between a confirmed and a provisional row?
Confirmed rows compare the peak intraday earnings move with the last implied move recorded before the print. Provisional rows cover names that reported in the last few days: the reaction shown is a cumulative close-based move while the peak-based statistics settle, so it understates the full swing and can only move outward as data lands.
Does a stock beating its implied move mean a trade made money?
No. It describes the size of the realized move against the size options priced beforehand. What any specific position returned depends on structure, strikes, timing and the change in implied volatility around the event. This page is educational and is not advice.
What does the implied move actually measure?
It is the magnitude of the move the options market prices in for an earnings report, derived from near-dated option prices — not a direction, and not a forecast. Our expected-move calculator shows the arithmetic.
How is this scorecard kept honest?
Every figure is generated from the same tracker file the live scoreboard uses; implied moves are the values published on our pages before each print, never re-derived afterwards. Nothing is estimated, and rows are never removed when they are unflattering.
This scorecard is free. Trading the second half is where membership starts.
Live implied moves on every name still to report, how often each one has beaten what options price in, IV-crush forecasts and a straddle simulator — the same pipeline that produced this scorecard, pointed at the rest of the season.