The headline: “big mover” is not the same as “beats implied”
An implied move reflects what options were pricing before an earnings report. A historical beat rate asks whether the stock’s realized peak move was larger than that pre-report implied move. The distinction matters: a stock can make large earnings moves and still often land below the premium options required.
| Stock | Published beat rate | Reported sample detail |
|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth (UNH) | ~88% | 14 of 16 |
| IBM | ~81% | 13 of 16 |
| AMD | ~63% | 10 of 16 |
| Meta (META) | ~63% | 10 of 16 |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) | ~25% | 4 of 16 |
What the public study shows
The source study reports that NVIDIA’s typical peak move is substantial (±8.3% in its cited 10-year view), yet its historical beat rate is ~25%. AMD and Meta each show ~63% beat rates in the published sample. The useful takeaway is not a ranking to trade; it is that an individual ticker’s historical relationship with its own options-implied move can differ sharply from another ticker’s.
For a broader comparison—including Apple, banks, healthcare, and other major names—use the full public expected-moves study. It contains the complete table, sample counts, average peak moves, and 95th-percentile tails reported as of July 16, 2026.
Methodology
The source study defines an implied-move “beat” as a report where the absolute realized peak earnings-day move exceeded the options-implied move recorded for that report. Its published figures use tracked implieds for recent reports—typically about 16, or roughly 10 years—and are historical observations, not predictions.
Read the detailed EarningsWatcher methodology for the default peak-move convention, timing, and the difference between confirmed and estimated earnings dates. A close-to-close move is a different measurement and should not be silently substituted for the study’s default peak measure.
How to interpret a beat rate
- It is not directional. A beat can be up or down.
- It is not a strategy result. Option P/L also depends on entry time, strike, expiry, IV changes, spreads, and position design.
- It is not a forecast. A new earnings release can differ materially from historical observations.
Pair the move comparison with an understanding of post-event volatility. The IV crush calculator and IV crush guide explain why a correct directional view may still not translate into a profitable long option.