United Airlines (UAL) is a higher-dispersion airline earnings name — double-digit reactions are part of the story, not freak events. Below is its earnings behaviour based on platform move history (roughly the past 10 years), as of July 2026.
UAL earnings at a glance
UAL’s decade average earnings move is about ±7.0%, with the last two years running slightly hotter at ±7.6%. The 95th-percentile tail reaches about ±13% — airline earnings can gap hard in either direction when fuel, demand or guidance surprise.
Does UAL beat its implied move?
The implied move is what options price in before the report. Among recent reports with tracked implied moves, UAL’s actual peak move has topped the implied in about 47% of cases (7 of 15) — essentially a coin flip, with occasional large overshoots in the record.
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How UAL’s moves are distributed
The distribution is wide: half of UAL’s earnings moves land within roughly ±6.0%, four in five stay under ±10.0%, and the 95th-percentile outlier reaches ±13.0%. That is a genuinely volatile earnings profile for a large-cap name.
Recent UAL earnings
To make it concrete: April 2026’s peak move was about ±7.1% against an implied move near ±7.3% — a modest undershoot. October 2025 peaked near ±9.6% against ~±6.7% implied — a clear beat. The tail risk in the full record matters as much as the last quiet print.
IV rush and IV crush on UAL
Implied volatility builds into the report (the IV rush) and collapses after (the IV crush). With a coin-flip beat rate and rich airline premium, UAL’s post-report IV drop has historically cut both ways.
What UAL’s earnings data means for options
These figures are a reference point, not a signal. UAL averages about ±7.0% over ten years (±7.6% over two), the beat rate sits near 50%, and the ±13% 95th-percentile figure marks realistic tail risk. Test structures in the EarningsWatcher app.
Frequently asked questions
How much does UAL move on earnings?
United Airlines' average earnings-day peak move is about plus or minus 7.0% over ten years (platform data, as of July 2026), with a median near plus or minus 6.0%. The last two years have averaged about plus or minus 7.6%. The 95th-percentile move is about plus or minus 13%.
Does UAL usually beat its implied move?
It is close to a coin flip among recent reports with tracked implied moves: UAL's actual peak move has topped its options-implied move in about 47% of those reports (roughly 7 of 15).
What is UAL's implied move for earnings?
United reports July 15, 2026 (after the close); as of early July 2026 the live implied move has been pricing near plus or minus 8.7% (above the plus or minus 7.0% decade average). Check the live figure in the EarningsWatcher app.
When does United Airlines (UAL) report earnings in July 2026?
United Airlines is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on July 15, 2026, after the market close (AMC). Confirm the exact time on a live earnings calendar before trading.