- TAL has moved in the same direction as PDD's earnings reaction in 75% of 28 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±3.5% — ×2.1 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 6 quality-gated sympathy peers for PDD: TAL, FUTU, RIVN, BEKE and more.
- When PDD's earnings reaction is positive, TAL's median same-day move is +4.0%; when negative, -3.1%.
All measured sympathy peers for PDD
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every PDD report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL | 75% of 28 | ±3.5% | ×2.1 | ▮▮ |
| FUTU | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| RIVN | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| BEKE | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| COIN | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| F | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past PDD reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of PDD itself?
Options on PDD are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. TAL has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns PDD's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the PDD implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when PDD reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of PDD's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is TAL: same direction as PDD's reaction in 75% of 28 tracked reports, median same-day move ±3.5%. Other quality-gated peers: FUTU, RIVN, BEKE, COIN, F — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like PDD worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: PDD's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like PDD' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than PDD's own move (TAL: ±3.5% vs a normal day ×2.1), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is TAL correlated with PDD?
On PDD's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 75% same-direction over 28 events after excluding TAL's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, TAL reacting to PDD's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.