EarningsWatcher
Sympathy board · public preview

Earnings sympathy plays this week

A sympathy play trades a stock that has no earnings — through another company's report. When a reporter surprises, correlated peers reprice the same day: same sector, shared customers, a read-through. Below: this week's 8 upcoming reporters and, for each, its strongest historically-correlated peer, from 23 quality-gated pairs. Nobody else measures this — EarningsWatcher counts every pair event by event over ten years, throws out macro days and the peer's own earnings, and scores what survives. A handful of showcase pairs below carry full free stats; every reporter links to its own free breakdown page. New to the idea? Start with what a sympathy play is and how we measure it.

EarningsWatcher Research · Updated September 11, 2026 · Educational information, not investment advice
Key facts · cite as EarningsWatcher, September 11, 2026
  • DHI has moved in the same direction as LEN's earnings reaction in 86% of 37 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±1.8% — ×1.4 its normal daily move (LEN reports Sep 16).
  • EarningsWatcher's quality-gated sympathy board currently tracks 23 reporter→peer pairs across 8 upcoming earnings reporters; per-pair scores, straddle breakevens and historical beat rates are member data.
Source: https://earnings-watcher.com/sympathy-plays · refreshed daily from live options data · free to quote with attribution and a link.

Monday, September 14

Tuesday, September 15

TCOMreports after close
Top sympathy peer: PDD — same direction as TCOM's earnings reaction in 82% of 17 past reports, typical same-day move ±3.2% (×2.7 its normal day).
+ 4 more scored peers: SOUN, S, UPST, TOST — scores and straddles for members

Wednesday, September 16

LENreports after close
Top sympathy peer: DHI — same direction as LEN's earnings reaction in 86% of 37 past reports, typical same-day move ±1.8% (×1.4 its normal day).
+ 4 more scored peers: PHM, TOL, BILL, KBH — scores and straddles for members
The board members trade from goes further for every pair: a 0–100 quality score, the peer's live ATM straddle with a 1-day breakeven (what the move must beat by the reaction-day close), how often past events beat that hurdle — from real historical option prices — direction splits, and the gap-vs-peak split (how much of the move is gone by the open). Plus the top pairs surface as ready P0/P1/P2 ideas in Data Picks. The key advantage over trading the reporter itself: the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay. See member plans →

How to read this board

"Same direction" is the share of the reporter's past earnings days where the peer's close-to-close move had the same sign as the reporter's reaction. Events on days the peer had its own earnings (±1 day) or the market moved more than 1.5% are excluded, so the correlation is to the report, not the tape. Pairs must pass sample-size, hit-rate and amplification gates to appear at all — most candidate pairs don't. History is not a prediction; sympathies weaken and invert.

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This week's implied-move card: every notable earnings release placed by its options-implied move

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Scored pairs, live peer straddles with honest 1-day breakevens, historical beat rates from real option prices, and the week's best pairs delivered as picks.

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