- BABA has moved in the same direction as GCMG's earnings reaction in 89% of 18 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±2.3% — ×1.6 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 5 quality-gated sympathy peers for GCMG: BABA, PDD, NTES, TAL and more.
- When GCMG's earnings reaction is positive, BABA's median same-day move is +2.4%; when negative, -2.1%.
All measured sympathy peers for GCMG
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every GCMG report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA | 89% of 18 | ±2.3% | ×1.6 | ▮▮ |
| PDD | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| NTES | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| TAL | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| MOS | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past GCMG reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of GCMG itself?
Options on GCMG are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. BABA has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns GCMG's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when GCMG reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of GCMG's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is BABA: same direction as GCMG's reaction in 89% of 18 tracked reports, median same-day move ±2.3%. Other quality-gated peers: PDD, NTES, TAL, MOS — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like GCMG worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: GCMG's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like GCMG' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than GCMG's own move (BABA: ±2.3% vs a normal day ×1.6), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is BABA correlated with GCMG?
On GCMG's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 89% same-direction over 18 events after excluding BABA's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, BABA reacting to GCMG's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.