- SBUX options imply a ±8.3% move for Starbucks's Oct 29, 2026 earnings report (after market close), as of October 10, 2026.
- SBUX's at-the-money implied volatility rose +83% on average over the final five sessions before its last 6 earnings reports.
- That pre-earnings build-up in implied volatility is the IV rush; it reverses the moment results are published (the IV crush), which is why a long option held through a SBUX report can lose money even when the direction is right.
- A long ATM SBUX straddle entered at the last close before earnings and held to the reaction-day close was profitable in 5 of the last 15 reports.
SBUX live implied move & 10Y history → · SBUX stock after earnings → · Who is on the IV Rush Radar this week → · Who moves in sympathy this week → · How the IV rush trade works →
What the IV rush is
IV rush is the build-up of implied volatility in a stock's nearest options as its earnings date approaches. Options price the coming move; the closer the report, the more of that expected move sits in the front expiration, so at-the-money IV climbs — often gently for days, then sharply on the last session. The instant the numbers are public the uncertainty is resolved and IV collapses: the IV crush. Two consequences: (1) holding calls or puts through the report means paying the crush, and (2) the ramp itself can be traded — enter a few days out, exit before the last close, never cross the print. That second idea is what EarningsWatcher's IV Rush strategy and the IV Rush Radar are built around.
How SBUX's implied volatility ramps into the print
Now the real thing. The IV Rush Radar records at-the-money IV twice a day for the last five sessions before every Starbucks report. Its most recent release (Jan 28, 2026) looked like this:
The same path as numbers — IV at each 4pm close, versus the -5d morning reading of 37%:
| Session | ATM IV | vs -5d open |
|---|---|---|
| -5d 4pm | 65% | +74% |
| -4d 4pm | 66% | +77% |
| -3d 4pm | 66% | +77% |
| -2d 4pm | 91% | +143% |
| -1d 4pm | 100% | +166% |
Across all 6 tracked reports the five-session ramp averaged +83%; the last-day figure is in the Radar.
| Report | IV at -5d | IV at last close | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 37% | 100% | +166% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
Why "just buy calls before earnings" usually loses even when you're right
Everything the market expects is already in the premium: implied volatility peaks at the last close before the report and collapses the moment the numbers are out. A call bought the night before needs the stock to move more than the implied move in the right direction just to break even — a smaller-than-priced move loses money on both calls and puts. Our IV crush guide walks through the mechanics; the expected-move calculator turns a straddle price into the break-even you'd need.
Buying the SBUX straddle at the last close and holding through: 5 of 15 paid
The backtester replays a long ATM straddle entered at the last close before each of Starbucks's last 15 reports and marked at the reaction-day close — real contract prices, not theory. Long vol won 5 of 15; short vol is the mirror image.
| Report | Straddle at entry | At reaction close | Long-vol P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $5.86 | $2.89 | -51% |
| Apr 28, 2026 | $6.25 | $8.61 | +38% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| Jul 29, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy SBUX before earnings?
That is a decision only you can make, and this page does not give advice. What the data says: options price a move of ±8.3% for the Oct 29, 2026 report, so a long call or put needs Starbucks to move more than that in the right direction to profit after IV crush. Implied volatility has climbed +83% on average over the final five sessions, which is why some traders trade the ramp itself and exit before the print.
Does SBUX implied volatility go up before earnings?
Usually. At-the-money implied volatility builds in the nearest expiration as the report approaches, because that expiration is where the event's expected move is priced. Across Starbucks's last 6 tracked reports the five-session ramp averaged +83% into the last close, then collapsed once results were out — the IV crush. The session-by-session curve, the last-day step and the hit rate are in the IV Rush Radar.
When does SBUX IV peak before earnings?
At the last close before the report — the final session before the print carries the biggest step for most names, which is why an IV-rush trade is exited before that close and never held through the announcement.
What is SBUX's implied move for the next earnings?
Options currently price about ±8.3% for Oct 29, 2026 (after market close); the 10-year average move is about ±6.4%.