- CZR has moved in the same direction as MTB's earnings reaction in 67% of 36 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±2.0% — ×1.6 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 1 quality-gated sympathy peers for MTB: CZR.
- When MTB's earnings reaction is positive, CZR's median same-day move is +0.9%; when negative, -0.1%.
All measured sympathy peers for MTB
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every MTB report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CZR | 67% of 36 | ±2.0% | ×1.6 | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past MTB reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of MTB itself?
Options on MTB are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. CZR has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns MTB's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the MTB implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when MTB reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of MTB's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is CZR: same direction as MTB's reaction in 67% of 36 tracked reports, median same-day move ±2.0%.
Are stocks like MTB worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: MTB's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like MTB' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than MTB's own move (CZR: ±2.0% vs a normal day ×1.6), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is CZR correlated with MTB?
On MTB's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 67% same-direction over 36 events after excluding CZR's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, CZR reacting to MTB's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.