- ROST has moved in the same direction as M's earnings reaction in 79% of 28 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±1.1% — ×1.4 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 2 quality-gated sympathy peers for M: ROST, TJX.
- When M's earnings reaction is positive, ROST's median same-day move is +0.4%; when negative, -1.5%.
All measured sympathy peers for M
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every M report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROST | 79% of 28 | ±1.1% | ×1.4 | ▮▮ |
| TJX | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past M reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of M itself?
Options on M are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. ROST has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns M's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when M reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of M's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is ROST: same direction as M's reaction in 79% of 28 tracked reports, median same-day move ±1.1%. Other quality-gated peers: TJX — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like M worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: M's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like M' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than M's own move (ROST: ±1.1% vs a normal day ×1.4), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is ROST correlated with M?
On M's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 79% same-direction over 28 events after excluding ROST's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, ROST reacting to M's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.