- M options imply a ±7.9% move for M's Sep 10, 2026 earnings report (before market open), as of September 8, 2026.
- M's at-the-money implied volatility rose +69% on average over the final five sessions before its last 4 earnings reports.
- That pre-earnings build-up in implied volatility is the IV rush; it reverses the moment results are published (the IV crush), which is why a long option held through a M report can lose money even when the direction is right.
- An at-the-money M straddle bought at the last close before the Mar 6, 2025 report was worth +44% at 10:00 the next morning (IV crush).
- A long ATM M straddle entered at the last close before earnings and held to the reaction-day close was profitable in 4 of the last 14 reports.
M live implied move & 10Y history → · M stock after earnings → · Who is on the IV Rush Radar this week → · Who moves in sympathy this week → · How the IV rush trade works →
What the IV rush is
IV rush is the build-up of implied volatility in a stock's nearest options as its earnings date approaches. Options price the coming move; the closer the report, the more of that expected move sits in the front expiration, so at-the-money IV climbs — often gently for days, then sharply on the last session. The instant the numbers are public the uncertainty is resolved and IV collapses: the IV crush. Two consequences: (1) holding calls or puts through the report means paying the crush, and (2) the ramp itself can be traded — enter a few days out, exit before the last close, never cross the print. That second idea is what EarningsWatcher's IV Rush strategy and the IV Rush Radar are built around.
How M's implied volatility ramps into the print
Now the real thing. The IV Rush Radar records at-the-money IV twice a day for the last five sessions before every M report. Its most recent release (Mar 6, 2025) looked like this:
The same path as numbers — IV at each 4pm close, versus the -5d morning reading of 94%:
| Session | ATM IV | vs -5d open |
|---|---|---|
| -5d 4pm | 83% | -11% |
| -4d 4pm | 79% | -16% |
| -3d 4pm | 112% | +19% |
| -2d 4pm | 125% | +33% |
| -1d 4pm | 162% | +72% |
Across all 4 tracked reports the five-session ramp averaged +69%; the last-day figure is in the Radar.
| Report | IV at -5d | IV at last close | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | 94% | 162% | +72% |
| Aug 21, 2024 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
| Nov 16, 2023 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
What holding M options through the print actually cost
The clearest way to see IV crush: an at-the-money straddle bought one minute before the last close before M's report, marked at 10:00 the next morning. Both legs together — so this is the premium lost even after the stock moved:
| Report | ATM straddle, last close → 10am next day |
|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2025 | +44% |
| Dec 11, 2024 | +2% |
| Nov 14, 2024 | +45% |
| Aug 20, 2024 | -2% |
| May 21, 2024 | -42% |
| Feb 27, 2024 | -23% |
| Nov 16, 2023 | -55% |
| Aug 22, 2023 | +32% |
| Jun 1, 2023 | -57% |
| Mar 2, 2023 | +63% |
| Nov 17, 2022 | -16% |
| Aug 23, 2022 | -10% |
| May 26, 2022 | +23% |
| Nov 18, 2021 | +77% |
| Aug 19, 2021 | +87% |
| May 18, 2021 | -43% |
| Feb 23, 2021 | -34% |
| Nov 19, 2020 | -60% |
| Sep 2, 2020 | -58% |
| Jun 9, 2020 | -30% |
| Feb 25, 2020 | -48% |
| Nov 21, 2019 | -67% |
Out-of-the-money strangles lost more. Members see every strike and the same figures for the reports the radar tracks.
Buying the M straddle at the last close and holding through: 4 of 14 paid
The backtester replays a long ATM straddle entered at the last close before each of M's last 14 reports and marked at the reaction-day close — real contract prices, not theory. Long vol won 4 of 14; short vol is the mirror image.
| Report | Straddle at entry | At reaction close | Long-vol P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | $1.94 | $0.96 | -50% |
| Dec 3, 2025 | $2.54 | $0.96 | -62% |
| Sep 3, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| May 28, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| Mar 6, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy M before earnings?
That is a decision only you can make, and this page does not give advice. What the data says: options price a move of ±7.9% for the Sep 10, 2026 report, so a long call or put needs M to move more than that in the right direction to profit after IV crush. Implied volatility has climbed +69% on average over the final five sessions, which is why some traders trade the ramp itself and exit before the print.
Does M implied volatility go up before earnings?
Usually. At-the-money implied volatility builds in the nearest expiration as the report approaches, because that expiration is where the event's expected move is priced. Across M's last 4 tracked reports the five-session ramp averaged +69% into the last close, then collapsed once results were out — the IV crush. The session-by-session curve, the last-day step and the hit rate are in the IV Rush Radar.
When does M IV peak before earnings?
At the last close before the report — the final session before the print carries the biggest step for most names, which is why an IV-rush trade is exited before that close and never held through the announcement.
What is M's implied move for the next earnings?
Options currently price about ±7.9% for Sep 10, 2026 (before market open); the 10-year average move is about ±10.9%.