- CVNA options imply a ±15.4% move for Carvana's Oct 28, 2026 earnings report (after market close), as of October 10, 2026.
- A long ATM CVNA straddle entered at the last close before earnings and held to the reaction-day close was profitable in 5 of the last 13 reports.
CVNA live implied move & 10Y history → · CVNA stock after earnings → · Who is on the IV Rush Radar this week → · Who moves in sympathy this week → · How the IV rush trade works →
Why "just buy calls before earnings" usually loses even when you're right
Everything the market expects is already in the premium: implied volatility peaks at the last close before the report and collapses the moment the numbers are out. A call bought the night before needs the stock to move more than the implied move in the right direction just to break even — a smaller-than-priced move loses money on both calls and puts. Our IV crush guide walks through the mechanics; the expected-move calculator turns a straddle price into the break-even you'd need.
Buying the CVNA straddle at the last close and holding through: 5 of 13 paid
The backtester replays a long ATM straddle entered at the last close before each of Carvana's last 13 reports and marked at the reaction-day close — real contract prices, not theory. Long vol won 5 of 13; short vol is the mirror image.
| Report | Straddle at entry | At reaction close | Long-vol P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | $7.70 | $5.49 | -29% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | $50.05 | $15.10 | -70% |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy CVNA before earnings?
That is a decision only you can make, and this page does not give advice. What the data says: options price a move of ±15.4% for the Oct 28, 2026 report, so a long call or put needs Carvana to move more than that in the right direction to profit after IV crush.
Does CVNA implied volatility go up before earnings?
Typically yes: implied volatility in the nearest expiration builds as the report approaches because the event's expected move is priced into that expiration, then collapses once results are out.
When does CVNA IV peak before earnings?
At the last close before the report — the final session before the print carries the biggest step for most names, which is why an IV-rush trade is exited before that close and never held through the announcement.
What is CVNA's implied move for the next earnings?
Options currently price about ±15.4% for Oct 28, 2026 (after market close); the 10-year average move is about ±20.5%.