- CRCL options imply a ±16.8% move for Circle's Nov 4, 2026 earnings report (before market open), as of October 19, 2026.
- A long ATM CRCL straddle entered at the last close before earnings and held to the reaction-day close was profitable in 2 of the last 5 reports.
CRCL live implied move & 10Y history → · Who is on the IV Rush Radar this week → · Who moves in sympathy this week → · How the IV rush trade works →
Why "just buy calls before earnings" usually loses even when you're right
Everything the market expects is already in the premium: implied volatility peaks at the last close before the report and collapses the moment the numbers are out. A call bought the night before needs the stock to move more than the implied move in the right direction just to break even — a smaller-than-priced move loses money on both calls and puts. Our IV crush guide walks through the mechanics; the expected-move calculator turns a straddle price into the break-even you'd need.
Buying the CRCL straddle at the last close and holding through: 2 of 5 paid
The backtester replays a long ATM straddle entered at the last close before each of Circle's last 5 reports and marked at the reaction-day close — real contract prices, not theory. Long vol won 2 of 5; short vol is the mirror image.
| Report | Straddle at entry | At reaction close | Long-vol P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $7.92 | $3.99 | -50% |
| May 11, 2026 | $15.40 | $20.45 | +33% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| Nov 12, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
| Aug 12, 2025 | $▮▮.▮▮ | $▮▮.▮▮ | ▮▮% |
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy CRCL before earnings?
That is a decision only you can make, and this page does not give advice. What the data says: options price a move of ±16.8% for the Nov 4, 2026 report, so a long call or put needs Circle to move more than that in the right direction to profit after IV crush.
Does CRCL implied volatility go up before earnings?
Typically yes: implied volatility in the nearest expiration builds as the report approaches because the event's expected move is priced into that expiration, then collapses once results are out.
When does CRCL IV peak before earnings?
At the last close before the report — the final session before the print carries the biggest step for most names, which is why an IV-rush trade is exited before that close and never held through the announcement.
What is CRCL's implied move for the next earnings?
Options currently price about ±16.8% for Nov 4, 2026 (before market open); the 10-year average move is about ±18.3%.