- NCLH has moved in the same direction as USPH's earnings reaction in 75% of 28 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±2.8% — ×1.6 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 2 quality-gated sympathy peers for USPH: NCLH, XPEV.
- When USPH's earnings reaction is positive, NCLH's median same-day move is +2.2%; when negative, -1.6%.
All measured sympathy peers for USPH
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every USPH report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH | 75% of 28 | ±2.8% | ×1.6 | ▮▮ |
| XPEV | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past USPH reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of USPH itself?
Options on USPH are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. NCLH has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns USPH's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when USPH reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of USPH's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is NCLH: same direction as USPH's reaction in 75% of 28 tracked reports, median same-day move ±2.8%. Other quality-gated peers: XPEV — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like USPH worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: USPH's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like USPH' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than USPH's own move (NCLH: ±2.8% vs a normal day ×1.6), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is NCLH correlated with USPH?
On USPH's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 75% same-direction over 28 events after excluding NCLH's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, NCLH reacting to USPH's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.