- RTX has moved in the same direction as TPL's earnings reaction in 81% of 16 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±1.1% — ×1.4 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 3 quality-gated sympathy peers for TPL: RTX, CZR, GD.
- When TPL's earnings reaction is positive, RTX's median same-day move is +0.8%; when negative, -1.3%.
All measured sympathy peers for TPL
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every TPL report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | 81% of 16 | ±1.1% | ×1.4 | ▮▮ |
| CZR | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| GD | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past TPL reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of TPL itself?
Options on TPL are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. RTX has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns TPL's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when TPL reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of TPL's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is RTX: same direction as TPL's reaction in 81% of 16 tracked reports, median same-day move ±1.1%. Other quality-gated peers: CZR, GD — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like TPL worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: TPL's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like TPL' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than TPL's own move (RTX: ±1.1% vs a normal day ×1.4), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is RTX correlated with TPL?
On TPL's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 81% same-direction over 16 events after excluding RTX's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, RTX reacting to TPL's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.