- MSFT has moved in the same direction as TLN's earnings reaction in 100% of 8 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±1.4% — ×1.7 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 4 quality-gated sympathy peers for TLN: MSFT, VFC, GME, BB.
- When TLN's earnings reaction is positive, MSFT's median same-day move is +1.1%; when negative, -2.0%.
All measured sympathy peers for TLN
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every TLN report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 100% of 8 | ±1.4% | ×1.7 | ▮▮ |
| VFC | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| GME | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| BB | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past TLN reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of TLN itself?
Options on TLN are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. MSFT has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns TLN's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when TLN reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of TLN's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is MSFT: same direction as TLN's reaction in 100% of 8 tracked reports, median same-day move ±1.4%. Other quality-gated peers: VFC, GME, BB — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like TLN worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: TLN's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like TLN' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than TLN's own move (MSFT: ±1.4% vs a normal day ×1.7), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is MSFT correlated with TLN?
On TLN's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 100% same-direction over 8 events after excluding MSFT's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, MSFT reacting to TLN's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.