- CF has moved in the same direction as TH's earnings reaction in 65% of 20 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±2.2% — ×1.6 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 1 quality-gated sympathy peers for TH: CF.
- When TH's earnings reaction is positive, CF's median same-day move is +1.3%; when negative, -0.2%.
All measured sympathy peers for TH
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every TH report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF | 65% of 20 | ±2.2% | ×1.6 | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past TH reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of TH itself?
Options on TH are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. CF has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns TH's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when TH reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of TH's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is CF: same direction as TH's reaction in 65% of 20 tracked reports, median same-day move ±2.2%.
Are stocks like TH worth watching on its earnings day?
Sometimes. Sympathy plays work best when the peer shares customers or economics with TH. TH's measured peers so far are statistical matches without a confirmed business link, so the edge is weaker: CF moved ±2.2% on TH's earnings days (×1.6 its normal day), but check what connects the two before trading it. The peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is CF correlated with TH?
On TH's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 65% same-direction over 20 events after excluding CF's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, CF reacting to TH's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.