- APO has moved in the same direction as TDG's earnings reaction in 71% of 28 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±2.0% — ×1.7 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 1 quality-gated sympathy peers for TDG: APO.
- When TDG's earnings reaction is positive, APO's median same-day move is +1.7%; when negative, -1.2%.
All measured sympathy peers for TDG
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every TDG report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APO | 71% of 28 | ±2.0% | ×1.7 | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past TDG reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of TDG itself?
Options on TDG are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. APO has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns TDG's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the TDG implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when TDG reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of TDG's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is APO: same direction as TDG's reaction in 71% of 28 tracked reports, median same-day move ±2.0%.
Are stocks like TDG worth watching on its earnings day?
Sometimes. Sympathy plays work best when the peer shares customers or economics with TDG. TDG's measured peers so far are statistical matches without a confirmed business link, so the edge is weaker: APO moved ±2.0% on TDG's earnings days (×1.7 its normal day), but check what connects the two before trading it. The peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is APO correlated with TDG?
On TDG's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 71% same-direction over 28 events after excluding APO's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, APO reacting to TDG's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.