- GM has moved in the same direction as SPG's earnings reaction in 71% of 28 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±1.5% — ×1.4 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 2 quality-gated sympathy peers for SPG: GM, UNP.
- When SPG's earnings reaction is positive, GM's median same-day move is +0.6%; when negative, -1.3%.
All measured sympathy peers for SPG
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every SPG report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 71% of 28 | ±1.5% | ×1.4 | ▮▮ |
| UNP | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past SPG reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of SPG itself?
Options on SPG are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. GM has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns SPG's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the SPG implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when SPG reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of SPG's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is GM: same direction as SPG's reaction in 71% of 28 tracked reports, median same-day move ±1.5%. Other quality-gated peers: UNP — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like SPG worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: SPG's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like SPG' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than SPG's own move (GM: ±1.5% vs a normal day ×1.4), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is GM correlated with SPG?
On SPG's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 71% same-direction over 28 events after excluding GM's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, GM reacting to SPG's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.