- CEG has moved in the same direction as NLY's earnings reaction in 75% of 16 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±3.0% — ×1.7 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 2 quality-gated sympathy peers for NLY: CEG, LUNR.
- When NLY's earnings reaction is positive, CEG's median same-day move is +4.7%; when negative, -0.4%.
All measured sympathy peers for NLY
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every NLY report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | 75% of 16 | ±3.0% | ×1.7 | ▮▮ |
| LUNR | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past NLY reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of NLY itself?
Options on NLY are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. CEG has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns NLY's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the NLY implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when NLY reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of NLY's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is CEG: same direction as NLY's reaction in 75% of 16 tracked reports, median same-day move ±3.0%. Other quality-gated peers: LUNR — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like NLY worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: NLY's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like NLY' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than NLY's own move (CEG: ±3.0% vs a normal day ×1.7), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is CEG correlated with NLY?
On NLY's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 75% same-direction over 16 events after excluding CEG's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, CEG reacting to NLY's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.