- AFRM has moved in the same direction as MSTR's earnings reaction in 70% of 10 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±6.3% — ×2.4 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 3 quality-gated sympathy peers for MSTR: AFRM, MDB, DOCU.
- When MSTR's earnings reaction is positive, AFRM's median same-day move is -0.2%; when negative, -8.4%.
All measured sympathy peers for MSTR
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every MSTR report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | 70% of 10 | ±6.3% | ×2.4 | ▮▮ |
| MDB | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
| DOCU | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past MSTR reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of MSTR itself?
Options on MSTR are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. AFRM has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns MSTR's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the MSTR implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when MSTR reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of MSTR's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is AFRM: same direction as MSTR's reaction in 70% of 10 tracked reports, median same-day move ±6.3%. Other quality-gated peers: MDB, DOCU — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like MSTR worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: MSTR's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like MSTR' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than MSTR's own move (AFRM: ±6.3% vs a normal day ×2.4), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is AFRM correlated with MSTR?
On MSTR's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 70% same-direction over 10 events after excluding AFRM's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, AFRM reacting to MSTR's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.