- UPST has moved in the same direction as FOUR's earnings reaction in 80% of 15 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±4.1% — ×1.5 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 2 quality-gated sympathy peers for FOUR: UPST, PDD.
- When FOUR's earnings reaction is positive, UPST's median same-day move is +1.4%; when negative, -4.6%.
All measured sympathy peers for FOUR
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every FOUR report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 80% of 15 | ±4.1% | ×1.5 | ▮▮ |
| PDD | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past FOUR reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of FOUR itself?
Options on FOUR are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. UPST has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns FOUR's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when FOUR reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of FOUR's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is UPST: same direction as FOUR's reaction in 80% of 15 tracked reports, median same-day move ±4.1%. Other quality-gated peers: PDD — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like FOUR worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: FOUR's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like FOUR' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than FOUR's own move (UPST: ±4.1% vs a normal day ×1.5), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is UPST correlated with FOUR?
On FOUR's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 80% same-direction over 15 events after excluding UPST's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, UPST reacting to FOUR's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.