- UPST has moved in the same direction as DUK's earnings reaction in 78% of 9 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±4.5% — ×1.7 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 1 quality-gated sympathy peers for DUK: UPST.
- When DUK's earnings reaction is positive, UPST's median same-day move is +7.8%; when negative, -2.5%.
All measured sympathy peers for DUK
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every DUK report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 78% of 9 | ±4.5% | ×1.7 | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past DUK reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of DUK itself?
Options on DUK are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. UPST has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns DUK's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the DUK implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when DUK reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of DUK's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is UPST: same direction as DUK's reaction in 78% of 9 tracked reports, median same-day move ±4.5%.
Are stocks like DUK worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: DUK's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like DUK' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than DUK's own move (UPST: ±4.5% vs a normal day ×1.7), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is UPST correlated with DUK?
On DUK's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 78% same-direction over 9 events after excluding UPST's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, UPST reacting to DUK's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.