- VALE has moved in the same direction as CMI's earnings reaction in 70% of 30 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±1.8% — ×1.7 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 1 quality-gated sympathy peers for CMI: VALE.
- When CMI's earnings reaction is positive, VALE's median same-day move is +0.7%; when negative, -0.7%.
All measured sympathy peers for CMI
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every CMI report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALE | 70% of 30 | ±1.8% | ×1.7 | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past CMI reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of CMI itself?
Options on CMI are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. VALE has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns CMI's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the CMI implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when CMI reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of CMI's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is VALE: same direction as CMI's reaction in 70% of 30 tracked reports, median same-day move ±1.8%.
Are stocks like CMI worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: CMI's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like CMI' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than CMI's own move (VALE: ±1.8% vs a normal day ×1.7), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is VALE correlated with CMI?
On CMI's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 70% same-direction over 30 events after excluding VALE's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, VALE reacting to CMI's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.