- AES has moved in the same direction as CF's earnings reaction in 69% of 26 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±0.9% — ×1.4 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 1 quality-gated sympathy peers for CF: AES.
- When CF's earnings reaction is positive, AES's median same-day move is +0.7%; when negative, -0.2%.
All measured sympathy peers for CF
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every CF report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AES | 69% of 26 | ±0.9% | ×1.4 | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past CF reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of CF itself?
Options on CF are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. AES has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns CF's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live board.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when CF reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of CF's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is AES: same direction as CF's reaction in 69% of 26 tracked reports, median same-day move ±0.9%.
Are stocks like CF worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: CF's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like CF' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than CF's own move (AES: ±0.9% vs a normal day ×1.4), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is AES correlated with CF?
On CF's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 69% same-direction over 26 events after excluding AES's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, AES reacting to CF's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.