- Vistra (VST) closed higher on earnings day in 4 of its last 18 reports (22%) and lower in 14.
- VST's average close-to-close earnings-day move over those 18 reports is ±2.9%; the intraday peak faded into the close 61% of the time.
- VST's worst earnings-day close in the tracked period was -9.4% (May 6, 2022) and its best +5.2% (May 9, 2023).
- On its most recent report (Aug 7, 2026) VST options had priced ±4.9%; the stock closed -0.6% with a peak of -4.7%.
VST's last five earnings reactions
| Report | Options priced | Close move | Peak move | Held or faded? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | ±4.9% | -0.6% | -4.7% | faded |
| May 7, 2026 | ±6.5% | -2.7% | +6.4% | faded |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ±7.0% | +0.8% | -6.4% | faded |
| Nov 7, 2025 | ±6.2% | -1.4% | -3.6% | faded |
| Aug 8, 2025 | ±5.4% | -1.0% | +2.0% | faded |
"Options priced" is the implied move going into the report; "close" and "peak" are the earnings-day close-to-close and peak intraday moves. "Faded" = the close gave back more than half of the peak, or reversed sign. Full implied-vs-actual history and the live implied move: VST data page.
Whether VST follows through in the days after the print, how often its opening gap gets filled, and how strong its post-earnings drift runs are what DriftLab measures across every past report — the follow-through score, gap-fill probability and PEAD score for VST, plus each report's five-day reaction path. Those readings are for members.
Why "good earnings" can still mean a red day
Before the report, options price the size of the expected move — the implied move — and the stock itself is priced for the market's expectations of results and guidance. The reaction is not to the numbers in isolation but to how they compare with what was already priced. That is why VST can beat estimates and fall, or miss and rise; and why the honest question is not "were the numbers good?" but "how far did the stock move against what options priced, and did it hold?" — which is what the season tracker follows for every notable name.
Frequently asked questions
Will VST stock go up after earnings?
Nobody can know in advance. What history says: over 18 tracked reports Vistra closed higher on earnings day 4 times and lower 14 times, with an average close move of ±2.9%. The options market prices the expected size of the move, not its direction.
Why does VST stock drop (or jump) after earnings even on good numbers?
Because the stock is priced for expectations, not results. Options price a move of a certain size beforehand; the reaction reflects how results and guidance compare with what was already priced in, plus the unwinding of positioning around the event. A beat can still be a disappointment relative to expectations.
Does VST's earnings move usually hold or fade?
In 11 of 18 tracked reports the earnings-day peak faded meaningfully into the close. Whether the move continues over the following days is what EarningsWatcher's DriftLab measures for members (follow-through, gap-fill probability, post-earnings drift).
How much does VST usually move on earnings?
On average about ±5.3% at the peak of earnings day over the last 10 years, with an average close-to-close move of ±2.9% across the tracked reports on this page.