- SpaceX (SPCX) reported its first quarterly results as a public company on Aug 4, 2026 after the close. At-the-money options on the pre-report close priced a ±17.19% move; the stock closed -13.6% on Aug 5, 2026 (intraday low -14.9%).
- Three sessions after its first report SpaceX closed +10.7% above the pre-report close — the initial reaction had fully reversed.
- Cerebras (CBRS) first report, Jun 23, 2026: options priced ±15.68%; the stock closed -19.6% — beyond the priced range. Second report, Aug 12, 2026: ±13.15% priced, -11.8% close, -16.4% intraday low.
The record so far
| Company | Report | Pre-print close | Options priced | Gap | Close | Peak | +3 sessions | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX Space Exploration Technologies | Aug 4, 2026 AMC first report as a public company (Q2 2026) | $125.33 | ±17.19% $21.55 straddle, 125 strike, exp Aug 7, 2026 | -10.3% | -13.6% | -14.9% | +10.7% | inside at the close; inside at the peak |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems | Jun 23, 2026 AMC first report as a public company (Q1 2026) | $226.72 | ±15.68% $35.54 straddle, 227.5 strike, exp Jun 26, 2026 | -8.3% | -19.6% | -19.9% | -4.7% | outside at the close; outside at the peak |
| CBRS Cerebras Systems | Aug 12, 2026 AMC second report (Q2 2026) | $262.06 | ±13.15% $34.47 straddle, 262.5 strike, exp Aug 14, 2026 | -16.1% | -11.8% | -16.4% | -16.1% | inside at the close; outside at the peak |
"Options priced" is the at-the-money call plus put on the nearest expiry after the reaction session, at their last trade on the pre-report session, divided by the pre-report close. Gap, close and peak are the reaction session's open, close and larger of high/low versus the pre-report close. "+3 sessions" is the close three trading sessions after the reaction session versus the pre-report close.
SpaceX: priced for ±17.19%, fell 13.6%, then reversed the whole move
SpaceX went public on June 12, 2026 at $135 — the largest IPO on record — and reported for the first time on Aug 4, 2026 after the close. The stock had already been under pressure: it closed at $125.33 on the report day, having risen +9.4% into the print. With the $125 straddle expiring Aug 7, 2026 trading at $21.55, options priced a ±17.19% move — a large number for a $2 trillion company, and a measure of how little history the market had to anchor on.
The reaction was inside the range but not by much: a -10.3% gap at the open, a low of -14.9%, and a -13.6% close. Coverage that day focused on AI capital spending outweighing a revenue beat. What the daily record shows next is the part the headlines missed: within three sessions the stock had recovered everything and closed +10.7% above the pre-report close.
| Session | Open | High | Low | Close | vs pre-print close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | $113.10 | $113.64 | $107.57 | $108.37 | -13.5% |
| Aug 3, 2026 | $106.40 | $114.92 | $104.83 | $114.53 | -8.6% |
| Aug 4, 2026 | $117.33 | $126.71 | $115.72 | $125.33 | +0.0% |
| Aug 5, 2026 | $112.37 | $117.50 | $106.66 | $108.27 | -13.6% |
| Aug 6, 2026 | $107.08 | $115.75 | $105.11 | $114.92 | -8.3% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | $114.97 | $133.48 | $114.53 | $133.11 | +6.2% |
| Aug 10, 2026 | $134.95 | $139.26 | $130.17 | $138.74 | +10.7% |
| Aug 11, 2026 | $138.66 | $139.98 | $130.50 | $133.29 | +6.3% |
| Aug 12, 2026 | $135.04 | $149.60 | $134.01 | $146.15 | +16.6% |
Cerebras: the first print breached the priced range, the second did not
Cerebras listed on May 14, 2026 at $185 and has reported twice. On its first report (Jun 23, 2026) options priced ±15.68% and the stock closed -19.6% — beyond the priced range, with the intraday low at -19.9%. Three sessions later it stood -4.7% versus the pre-report close: the drop had largely reversed.
On the second report (Aug 12, 2026) the market priced ±13.15% — less than the first time, having seen one reaction — and the stock closed -11.8%, inside the range at the close but -16.4% at the intraday low, outside it. Three sessions on it was -16.1%. Two prints, two double-digit drops, and a market that priced the second one more tightly than the first.
The EarningsWatcher Lens
No history, wide pricing. A first report has no implied-vs-actual record behind it, so the options market prices it wide: ±17.19% for SpaceX and ±15.68% for Cerebras against a market-wide average of about ±9%. On both first prints the stock moved double digits; on one of the two it still moved more than the wide price.
The reaction session is not the story. SpaceX's -13.6% became +10.7% three sessions later; Cerebras's first-print drop of -19.6% became -4.7%. For new listings with thin ownership and no earnings track record, the first move has reversed as often as it has held.
The market learns fast. Cerebras's second print was priced ±13.15%, down from ±15.68%. One data point was enough to tighten the price by 2.5 points.
What this does not say. Three prints across two companies is a record, not a statistic. This page will carry every report the class delivers; the conclusions get sharper as it fills.
Free to quote with attribution: EarningsWatcher, September 17, 2026 · earnings-watcher.com/wiki/ipo-class-2026-first-earnings
Coming up
- SpaceX (SPCX) — third-quarter report: date not yet announced. The page will carry the priced move from the moment options price it.
- Cerebras (CBRS) — third-quarter report: date not yet announced by the company.
- SK hynix (SKHY), listed July 10 — first report as a US-listed company: date not yet announced.
Only company-confirmed dates are ever written here; estimates published by third parties are not.
Sources and method
- Prices — adjusted daily open/high/low/close from Polygon.io for each name around its report date.
- Options — the at-the-money call and put on the nearest expiry after the reaction session, contracts as listed on the pre-report date, at their last trade of the pre-report session (Polygon.io options aggregates). A last trade can differ from the closing mid; on these liquid weeklies the difference is small, and the convention is stated so the number can be reproduced.
- Listing facts — IPO dates and prices from public filings and IPO coverage (SpaceX: June 12, 2026, $135; Cerebras: May 14, 2026, $185; SK hynix: July 10, 2026).
- Method — how EarningsWatcher measures implied and realised moves · the market-wide baseline: do options overprice earnings moves?
Updates
- September 17, 2026 — Published with SpaceX's first report and Cerebras's first two. The next report by any 2026 listing is added the session after its reaction close is recorded.
How EarningsWatcher helps
The numbers on this page are the same measurements that run every day behind the free earnings calendar, the per-ticker implied-move pages and the Q3 implied-vs-actual tracker. Members see the live implied move on every reporting name, the full ten-year history per ticker and the simulator's read on a position against those reactions. See member plans →
Frequently asked questions
What did options price for SpaceX's first earnings report?
On the pre-report session (Aug 4, 2026), the at-the-money $125 straddle expiring Aug 7, 2026 traded at $21.55, or ±17.19% of the $125.33 close.
How did SpaceX stock react to its first earnings?
It closed -13.6% on Aug 5, 2026 versus the pre-report close, with an intraday low of -14.9%; three sessions later it closed +10.7% above the pre-report close.
When is SpaceX's next earnings report?
The company has not announced the date of its third-quarter report. This page is updated when it does; only company-confirmed dates are published here.
Did Cerebras move more than options priced?
On its first report, yes: options priced ±15.68% and the stock closed -19.6%. On its second report options priced ±13.15% and the stock closed -11.8% — inside the range at the close, though the intraday low of -16.4% went beyond it.
Educational information only. Past moves do not predict future ones. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Read the methodology and the risk disclosure.