- International Business Machines (IBM) closed higher on earnings day in 8 of its last 16 reports (50%) and lower in 8.
- IBM's average close-to-close earnings-day move over those 16 reports is ±5.4%; the intraday peak faded into the close 19% of the time.
- IBM's worst earnings-day close in the tracked period was -8.3% (Apr 24, 2024) and its best +13.0% (Jan 29, 2025).
- On its most recent report (Jul 22, 2026) IBM options had priced ±6.9%; the stock closed +0.4% with a peak of -3.2%.
IBM's last five earnings reactions
| Report | Options priced | Close move | Peak move | Held or faded? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | ±6.9% | +0.4% | -3.2% | faded |
| Apr 22, 2026 | ±6.5% | -8.3% | -12.0% | held |
| Jan 28, 2026 | ±6.5% | +5.1% | +8.8% | held |
| Oct 22, 2025 | ±6.8% | -0.9% | -8.3% | faded |
| Jul 23, 2025 | ±6.3% | -7.6% | -10.4% | held |
"Options priced" is the implied move going into the report; "close" and "peak" are the earnings-day close-to-close and peak intraday moves. "Faded" = the close gave back more than half of the peak, or reversed sign. Full implied-vs-actual history and the live implied move: IBM data page.
Whether IBM follows through in the days after the print, how often its opening gap gets filled, and how strong its post-earnings drift runs are what DriftLab measures across every past report — the follow-through score, gap-fill probability and PEAD score for IBM, plus each report's five-day reaction path. Those readings are for members.
Why "good earnings" can still mean a red day
Before the report, options price the size of the expected move — the implied move — and the stock itself is priced for the market's expectations of results and guidance. The reaction is not to the numbers in isolation but to how they compare with what was already priced. That is why IBM can beat estimates and fall, or miss and rise; and why the honest question is not "were the numbers good?" but "how far did the stock move against what options priced, and did it hold?" — which is what the season tracker follows for every notable name.
Frequently asked questions
Will IBM stock go up after earnings?
Nobody can know in advance. What history says: over 16 tracked reports International Business Machines closed higher on earnings day 8 times and lower 8 times, with an average close move of ±5.4%. The options market prices the expected size of the move, not its direction.
Why does IBM stock drop (or jump) after earnings even on good numbers?
Because the stock is priced for expectations, not results. Options price a move of a certain size beforehand; the reaction reflects how results and guidance compare with what was already priced in, plus the unwinding of positioning around the event. A beat can still be a disappointment relative to expectations.
Does IBM's earnings move usually hold or fade?
In 3 of 16 tracked reports the earnings-day peak faded meaningfully into the close. Whether the move continues over the following days is what EarningsWatcher's DriftLab measures for members (follow-through, gap-fill probability, post-earnings drift).
How much does IBM usually move on earnings?
On average about ±7.1% at the peak of earnings day over the last 10 years, with an average close-to-close move of ±5.4% across the tracked reports on this page.