- Adobe has moved ±7.4% on average at the peak of earnings day over the last 10 years; the median is ±6.2% and the 95th percentile ±16.5%.
- ADBE's actual earnings move exceeded what options had priced in 12 of its last 16 reports (75%).
- Last report (Jun 11, 2026): options priced ±9.2%, the stock closed -6.8%.
What options priced vs what ADBE has done
ADBE's last five reports: priced vs happened
| Report | Options priced | Close move | Peak move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2026 | ±9.2% | -6.8% | -10.0% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | ±6.9% | -7.6% | -8.4% |
| Dec 10, 2025 | ±7.0% | +2.1% | +4.0% |
| Sep 11, 2025 | ±10.8% | -0.3% | +4.5% |
| Jun 12, 2025 | ±7.3% | -5.3% | -7.2% |
Full 10-year table and the live number all season: ADBE implied-move page · season-wide scoreboard: Q3 implied-vs-actual tracker.
The week before: ADBE's IV rush
That climb is tradeable — and it ends at the print. How members play it: the IV Rush Radar draws ADBE's live IV against its typical ramp with three entry signals and a projected straddle. Free breakdown: ADBE before earnings.
The weeks after: does the move hold?
The reaction close is the start, not the story — DriftLab scores ADBE's follow-through, gap-fill odds and drift strength for members. Free breakdown: ADBE after earnings.
- Simulator — build the exact ADBE position and see its likelihood of success and risk/reward against ten years of reactions, with real IV crush modelled
- IV Rush Radar — ADBE's live pre-earnings IV curve, three snapshot signals, projected straddle
- DriftLab — follow-through, gap-fill and drift scores for the days after
- Data Picks — the week's scored ideas across five strategies, ADBE week included
Frequently asked questions
When was ADBE's September 2026 earnings report?
Adobe reported on Sep 10, 2026, after market close.
What is the expected move for ADBE earnings?
Options had priced a ±8.3% move (the implied move) for the Sep 10, 2026 report. For context, ADBE's 10-year average peak move is ±7.4%, the median ±6.2% and the 95th-percentile tail ±16.5%.
Will ADBE beat earnings — can this page predict the move?
No page can predict direction, and this one does not try. What is measurable: how big a move options had priced, how that compared with what actually happened in each past report (12 of 16 beat the implied), and how the stock has behaved before and after prints. Decision tools — the simulator's likelihood of success, the IV Rush signals, DriftLab's follow-through scores — are for EarningsWatcher members.
What usually happens to ADBE stock after earnings?
Over its tracked reports ADBE's earnings-day close averaged ±7.7% with the biggest single-day close at -16.8%. The day-by-day record — and whether moves follow through or fade — is on the ADBE after-earnings page and in DriftLab.