- LOW's at-the-money implied volatility rose +54% on average over the final five sessions before its last 3 earnings reports.
- That pre-earnings build-up in implied volatility is the IV rush; it reverses the moment results are published (the IV crush), which is why a long option held through a LOW report can lose money even when the direction is right.
LOW live implied move & 10Y history → · LOW stock after earnings → · Who is on the IV Rush Radar this week → · Who moves in sympathy this week → · How the IV rush trade works →
What the IV rush is
IV rush is the build-up of implied volatility in a stock's nearest options as its earnings date approaches. Options price the coming move; the closer the report, the more of that expected move sits in the front expiration, so at-the-money IV climbs — often gently for days, then sharply on the last session. The instant the numbers are public the uncertainty is resolved and IV collapses: the IV crush. Two consequences: (1) holding calls or puts through the report means paying the crush, and (2) the ramp itself can be traded — enter a few days out, exit before the last close, never cross the print. That second idea is what EarningsWatcher's IV Rush strategy and the IV Rush Radar are built around.
How LOW's implied volatility ramps into the print
Now the real thing. The IV Rush Radar records at-the-money IV twice a day for the last five sessions before every Lowe's report. Its most recent release (Aug 20, 2025) looked like this:
The same path as numbers — IV at each 4pm close, versus the -5d morning reading of 35%:
| Session | ATM IV | vs -5d open |
|---|---|---|
| -5d 4pm | 42% | +19% |
| -4d 4pm | 39% | +11% |
| -3d 4pm | 40% | +12% |
| -2d 4pm | 49% | +39% |
| -1d 4pm | 49% | +38% |
Across all 3 tracked reports the five-session ramp averaged +54%; the last-day figure is in the Radar.
| Report | IV at -5d | IV at last close | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2025 | 35% | 49% | +38% |
| Nov 19, 2024 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
| May 21, 2024 | ▮▮% | ▮▮▮% | +▮▮% |
Why "just buy calls before earnings" usually loses even when you're right
Everything the market expects is already in the premium: implied volatility peaks at the last close before the report and collapses the moment the numbers are out. A call bought the night before needs the stock to move more than the implied move in the right direction just to break even — a smaller-than-priced move loses money on both calls and puts. Our IV crush guide walks through the mechanics; the expected-move calculator turns a straddle price into the break-even you'd need.
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy LOW before earnings?
That is a decision only you can make, and this page does not give advice. What the data says: options price a move of about ±6.0% on average, so a long call or put needs Lowe's to move more than that in the right direction to profit after IV crush. Implied volatility has climbed +54% on average over the final five sessions, which is why some traders trade the ramp itself and exit before the print.
Does LOW implied volatility go up before earnings?
Usually. At-the-money implied volatility builds in the nearest expiration as the report approaches, because that expiration is where the event's expected move is priced. Across Lowe's's last 3 tracked reports the five-session ramp averaged +54% into the last close, then collapsed once results were out — the IV crush. The session-by-session curve, the last-day step and the hit rate are in the IV Rush Radar.
When does LOW IV peak before earnings?
At the last close before the report — the final session before the print carries the biggest step for most names, which is why an IV-rush trade is exited before that close and never held through the announcement.
What is LOW's implied move for the next earnings?
The next Lowe's report is not confirmed yet. Its 10-year average earnings move is about ±6.0%; the live implied move appears on the LOW implied-move page as soon as the date is set.