HD Stock Before Earnings: IV Ramps +55% Into the Print (Home Depot)

What happens to HD stock before earnings? Two things are measurable: Home Depot's next earnings date is not confirmed yet; its 10-year average earnings move is about ±3.9%; at-the-money implied volatility climbed +55% over the final five sessions before the print on average across Home Depot's last 3 reports (it rose into 3 of the 3), with the last day alone averaging +20%. That ramp is what an IV-rush trade tries to capture — and it collapses the moment the numbers are out (IV crush), which is why buying calls or puts the night before is usually a bet against the odds unless the move beats what was priced.

Avg move (10Y)

±3.9%

peak earnings-day move

Typical IV ramp

+55%

-5d → last close, avg of 3 reports

Last-day ramp

+20%

final session alone, average

HD live implied move & 10Y history → · HD stock after earnings → · Who is on the IV Rush Radar this week → · How the IV rush trade works →

How HD's implied volatility ramps into the print

The IV Rush Radar records at-the-money IV twice a day for the last five sessions before every Home Depot report. Its most recent release (Nov 18, 2025) looked like this — IV at each 4pm close, versus the -5d morning reading of 37%:

Session	ATM IV	vs -5d open
-5d 4pm	37%	+1%
-4d 4pm	39%	+4%
-3d 4pm	40%	+7%
-2d 4pm	40%	+8%
-1d 4pm	50%	+35%

Across all 3 tracked reports the five-session ramp averaged +55% and the last day alone +20%.

Report	IV at -5d	IV at last close	Ramp
Nov 18, 2025	37%	50%	+35%
Aug 13, 2024	▮▮%	▮▮▮%	+▮▮%
May 14, 2024	▮▮%	▮▮▮%	+▮▮%

The other 2 Home Depot reports, side by side — and the live curve for the next one — are in the IV Rush Radar. This is the tool members use to trade the ramp before the crush: the historical median IV path for HD drawn against today's real-time IV, three snapshot signals (is IV rising now, is the projected straddle gain worth it, does HD usually rise on the last day), a projected straddle price into the close, and the platform's daily P1/P2/P3 rush picks. Ideal setups light all three signals green — and the radar tells you when to be out (always before the last close). See member plans →

Why "just buy calls before earnings" usually loses even when you're right

Everything the market expects is already in the premium: implied volatility peaks at the last close before the report and collapses the moment the numbers are out. A call bought the night before needs the stock to move more than the implied move in the right direction just to break even — a smaller-than-priced move loses money on both calls and puts. Our IV crush guide walks through the mechanics; the expected-move calculator turns a straddle price into the break-even you'd need.

Buying the HD straddle at the last close and holding through: 3 of 14 paid

The backtester replays a long ATM straddle entered at the last close before each of Home Depot's last 14 reports and marked at the reaction-day close — real contract prices, not theory. Long vol won 3 of 14; short vol is the mirror image.

Report	Straddle at entry	At reaction close	Long-vol P&L
May 19, 2026	$14.72	$8.25	-44%
Feb 24, 2026	$13.30	$10.21	-23%
Nov 18, 2025	$▮▮.▮▮	$▮▮.▮▮	▮▮%
Aug 19, 2025	$▮▮.▮▮	$▮▮.▮▮	▮▮%
May 20, 2025	$▮▮.▮▮	$▮▮.▮▮	▮▮%

Every one of the 14 instances — entry, open, midday and close prices for straddles, strangles, iron butterflies and condors — is in the Backtester, and the Simulator gives the likelihood of success and risk/reward for the exact position you'd put on for the next report. See member plans →

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Frequently asked questions

Should I buy HD before earnings?

That is a decision only you can make, and this page does not give advice. What the data says: options price a move of about ±3.9% on average, so a long call or put needs Home Depot to move more than that in the right direction to profit after IV crush. Implied volatility has climbed +55% on average over the final five sessions, which is why some traders trade the ramp itself and exit before the print.

Does HD implied volatility go up before earnings?

Usually. Across Home Depot's last 3 reports at-the-money IV rose into the print 3 times, averaging +55% from five sessions out to the last close, with the last day alone averaging +20%. Into its Nov 18, 2025 report IV went from 37% to 50%.

When does HD IV peak before earnings?

At the last close before the report — the final session before the print carries the biggest step for most names, which is why an IV-rush trade is exited before that close and never held through the announcement.

What is HD's implied move for the next earnings?

The next Home Depot report is not confirmed yet. Its 10-year average earnings move is about ±3.9%; the live implied move appears on the HD implied-move page as soon as the date is set.