- AAR Corp (AIR) closed higher on earnings day in 7 of its last 17 reports (41%) and lower in 10.
- AIR's average close-to-close earnings-day move over those 17 reports is ±7.2%; the intraday peak faded into the close 24% of the time.
- AIR's worst earnings-day close in the tracked period was -16.4% (Mar 27, 2025) and its best +13.6% (Jul 16, 2025).
- On its most recent report (Jul 21, 2026) AIR options had priced ±14.0%; the stock closed -9.8% with a peak of -11.5%.
AIR's last five earnings reactions
| Report | Options priced | Close move | Peak move | Held or faded? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | ±14.0% | -9.8% | -11.5% | held |
| Mar 24, 2026 | ±11.8% | +9.9% | +14.1% | held |
| Jan 6, 2026 | ±9.7% | +2.1% | +8.4% | faded |
| Sep 23, 2025 | ±12.2% | +4.2% | +5.4% | held |
| Jul 16, 2025 | ±8.0% | +13.6% | +15.4% | held |
"Options priced" is the implied move going into the report; "close" and "peak" are the earnings-day close-to-close and peak intraday moves. "Faded" = the close gave back more than half of the peak, or reversed sign. Full implied-vs-actual history and the live implied move: AIR data page.
What post-earnings drift is
The reaction day settles the gap; it does not settle the story. Over the following days and weeks a stock can follow through — keep moving in the direction of its earnings reaction (the effect academics call post-earnings announcement drift, PEAD) — or it can fill the gap and drift back toward where it closed before the report, or simply hold. Which of those a given stock tends to do is measurable from its own history, and that is exactly what DriftLab measures: for every past release it tracks the closes at +3, +7, +15, +30 and +60 sessions against the pre-earnings close, labels the drift, and rolls the record into three scores — Follow-Through, Gap-Fill probability and PEAD.
What AIR did in the weeks after each report
The earnings-day close is only the start. DriftLab follows every AAR Corp release out to sixty sessions, measured off the last close before the print — here are the two most recent, exactly as members see them; in 5 of the last 14 reports the stock was further in the direction of its earnings-day close thirty sessions later.
| Report | Reaction close | +3d | +7d | +15d | +30d | +60d | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | +9.9% | -4.3% | +5.7% | +9.9% | +9.3% | +24.6% | high |
| Jan 6, 2026 | +2.1% | +9.8% | +17.5% | +19.2% | +30.8% | +27.4% | high |
| Sep 23, 2025 | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮▮ |
| Jul 16, 2025 | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮▮ |
| Mar 27, 2025 | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮.▮% | ▮▮▮ |
Why "good earnings" can still mean a red day
Before the report, options price the size of the expected move — the implied move — and the stock itself is priced for the market's expectations of results and guidance. The reaction is not to the numbers in isolation but to how they compare with what was already priced. That is why AIR can beat estimates and fall, or miss and rise; and why the honest question is not "were the numbers good?" but "how far did the stock move against what options priced, and did it hold?" — which is what the season tracker follows for every notable name.
Frequently asked questions
Will AIR stock go up after earnings?
Nobody can know in advance. What history says: over 17 tracked reports AAR Corp closed higher on earnings day 7 times and lower 10 times, with an average close move of ±7.2%. The options market prices the expected size of the move, not its direction.
Why does AIR stock drop (or jump) after earnings even on good numbers?
Because the stock is priced for expectations, not results. Options price a move of a certain size beforehand; the reaction reflects how results and guidance compare with what was already priced in, plus the unwinding of positioning around the event. A beat can still be a disappointment relative to expectations.
Does AIR's earnings move usually hold or fade?
In 4 of 17 tracked reports the earnings-day peak faded meaningfully into the close. Whether the move continues over the following days is what EarningsWatcher's DriftLab measures for members (follow-through, gap-fill probability, post-earnings drift).
How much does AIR usually move on earnings?
On average about ±9.6% at the peak of earnings day over the last 10 years, with an average close-to-close move of ±7.2% across the tracked reports on this page.