- U has moved in the same direction as TD's earnings reaction in 89% of 19 tracked reports, with a median same-day move of ±3.3% — ×1.4 its normal daily move.
- EarningsWatcher tracks 2 quality-gated sympathy peers for TD: U, ABNB.
- When TD's earnings reaction is positive, U's median same-day move is +3.1%; when negative, -2.8%.
All measured sympathy peers for TD
Every peer below passed the gates — enough events, direction consistency well above a coin flip, and a move meaningfully bigger than its normal day. Nobody else publishes this measurement; it exists because EarningsWatcher computes it from every TD report, with the peer's own earnings days and heavy market days excluded.
| Peer | Same direction | Typical move | vs normal day | Sympathy score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U | 89% of 19 | ±3.3% | ×1.4 | ▮▮ |
| ABNB | ▮▮% of ▮▮ | ±▮.▮% | ×▮.▮ | ▮▮ |
- the 0–100 sympathy score for each pair (direction consistency + amplification + correlation, discounted for small samples)
- each peer's live ATM straddle with an honest 1-day breakeven — the move it must beat by the reaction-day close
- historical beat rates from real option prices: how often past TD reports beat that same hurdle
- direction splits, gap-vs-peak timing, and an event-by-event history for every pair
- the week's best pairs delivered as P0/P1/P2 sympathy picks
Why trade the peer instead of TD itself?
Options on TD are expensive into the print — the expected move is priced in, and implied volatility collapses the moment results land. U has no event that day: its options are priced for a normal session, and measured across our pairs the median change in peer IV through a reporter's print is roughly zero. The sympathy trade turns TD's report into a position with a normal-day hurdle instead of an event-premium hurdle. New to the concept? Read what a sympathy play is, then see this week's live boardor the TD implied-move page.
Frequently asked questions
Which stocks move when TD reports earnings?
Measured over up to ten years of TD's earnings days, the strongest sympathy peer is U: same direction as TD's reaction in 89% of 19 tracked reports, median same-day move ±3.3%. Other quality-gated peers: ABNB — their full statistics are on the member board.
Are stocks like TD worth watching on its earnings day?
That is exactly what a sympathy play is: TD's report reprices companies with the same customers and economics, so 'stocks like TD' often move the same day — without an earnings event of their own. The size is usually smaller than TD's own move (U: ±3.3% vs a normal day ×1.4), but the peer's options carry no event premium, so there is no IV crush to pay.
Is U correlated with TD?
On TD's earnings days specifically, yes, historically: 89% same-direction over 19 events after excluding U's own earnings window and heavy market days. General day-to-day correlation is a different (weaker) question — the earnings-day link is the tradeable one.
What is a sympathy stock?
A sympathy stock moves on another company's news rather than its own — here, U reacting to TD's earnings. EarningsWatcher measures these relationships event by event and gates them for sample size, direction consistency and amplification; see the full guide to sympathy plays.