Most “strategy reviews” cherry-pick winners. We wanted to do the opposite: publish the complete record of our two earnings volatility signal types, including the ugly losers, so you can judge the edge for yourself.
The two signal types
Long Vol trades buy volatility before earnings — they profit when the move (or the run-up in implied volatility) is bigger than what’s priced in. Short Vol trades sell defined-risk premium — they profit from IV crush when the market overpays for the event.
Long Vol — the full record
The win rate is barely above a coin flip — but that’s by design. Long Vol pays off through asymmetry: the average winner (+54.8%) is nearly double the average loser (−29.4%), and the largest single gain reached +250.5%. Put those together and each trade carries a positive expectancy of roughly +16.9%.
Short Vol — the full record
Short Vol flips the profile: it wins often (82.1%) but the rare losers are large (avg −82.5%, worst −135.8% on a defined-risk basis). The high hit rate more than compensates, producing an expectancy near +19.4% per trade — provided you respect position sizing, because the tail is real.
Expectancy, side by side
Turning expectancy into a capital curve
Expectancy is abstract, so we ran a simple sequential simulation: start with $10,000, risk 10% per signal, take the trades in the order they fired, and apply no loss caps.
What we learned
- Win rate alone is meaningless. Long Vol wins ~55% and still prints money because winners dwarf losers.
- Sizing is the strategy. Short Vol’s rare −135% trade is survivable only with disciplined position sizing.
- The two pair well. Long Vol and Short Vol tend to shine in different volatility regimes, smoothing the combined curve.
Every signal is posted live in our Discord as it fires — before the outcome is known — so the record stays honest.
Frequently asked questions
What was the win rate of the earnings volatility signals?
Across 68 signals the overall win rate was 66.2%. Long Vol trades won about 55% (22 of 40) and Short Vol trades won about 82.1% (23 of 28), with both carrying positive expectancy per trade.
Why does a 55% win rate still make money?
Long Vol pays off through asymmetry: the average winner was +54.8% versus an average loser of −29.4%, with the largest gain reaching +250.5%. Larger winners than losers produce a positive expectancy even at a modest win rate.
Is the $10K to $30K result a real account?
No. It is a hypothetical sequential simulation starting at $10,000 and risking 10% per signal with no loss caps, assuming idealized execution at signal prices. Real results will differ and past performance does not guarantee future results.